Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
141 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and spread northeast this afternoon. Most
areas will see isolated storms, with higher coverage over the
central mountains and along the Montana border to Island Park.
Some storms may produce measurable rainfall, but the main concern
is gusty winds and even small hail. Strong storms are possible
across the central mountains and along the Montana border, but the
severe threat is pretty low. Outside of storms, gusty winds will
develop...strongest over the Lava Beds and Arco Desert. For this
evening, storms will linger generally east of a Lone Pine to Malta
line...especially near Island Park and Monida Pass. For Thursday
and Friday, it should be dry as the ridge builds a bit. However,
the low topping the ridge is close enough to produce some stronger
winds. Winds will strongest areawide tomorrow, and concentrated
Friday across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and southern
highlands. That may end up being strongest wind day, with
potentially reaching Wind Advisory thresholds in those areas. In
terms of heat, we may just miss reaching forecast highs today as
clouds and a bit moisture seem to be holding us back. Even so,
excessive heat issues continue...even into tomorrow to a lesser
extent as well down a few degrees tomorrow and again Friday. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. On Saturday, the heat
will begin to move back into the area with portions of the
eastern Magic Valley seeing temps rise back into the upper 90s to
near 100. The heat expands by Sunday with many valley locations
expected to see temps in the mid to upper lows and even low 100s
possible. Good chance that heat headlines will be issued once
again for the heat over the weekend into early next week. The
ridge of high pressure responsible for this heat is not expected
to budge much. Possibly seeing temps oscillate a couple degrees as
we head towards midweek. Mostly dry conditions expected as well
although a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible if we can
get enough monsoon moisture to punch through the ridge early next
week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Included VCTS at all TAF sites for this afternoon and evening as
high res models are showing isolated hit and miss thunderstorms
developing ahead of a cold front. Radar shows these storms
developing across central Idaho and expect some eastward propagation
into the evening. Winds will continue to pick up as the front
approaches the area with gusts to 20kts possible affecting BYI, PIH,
and IDA.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Things on the fire weather side will be pretty
busy through Friday. First off, today's round of RED FLAG WARNINGS
for the central mountains remains in place. We are seeing
scattered thunderstorms and outflow winds across the central
mountains, along with gusty winds overall developing. Isolated
storms are developing and expected elsewhere, although a higher
concentration of lightning is likely through this evening along
the Montana border toward Island Park. Stronger storms will likely
produce gusty winds over 40mph and a brief downpour. We can't
rule out small hail either. Other areas will see gusty winds
outside of storms as well, but we are not expecting widespread
critical conditions. After today, we should be storm- free...but
NOT free of any RED FLAG conditions. As the next storm tops the
ridge, gusty winds will develop along with low humidity. We
converted the watch tomorrow to a RED FLAG WARNING for 410, 411,
425, 427 and 476. We left out 422 as we are not looking at
widespread critical conditions. The same can be said for 411 and
475. Friday may end up being a more critical fire day across
portions of 410, 413, 425 and 427. A dry slot passes over our
area, with strong winds expected in those zones. Humidity values
will be even lower vs tomorrow. At some point, expect to see RED
FLAG WARNINGS issued for those zones. Right now, we are waiting
until we can thin down the amount of headlines between today's and
tomorrow's events. Excessive heat will continue, although we cool
down the next two days. Temperatures quickly rebound over the
weekend. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ051-055.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for IDZ410-413-
425-427-476.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for IDZ057-059.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ422-475-476.

Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ052>054-056-058.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
229 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

IDZ055>057-072115-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Raft River Region ID-
Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
229 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CASSIA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MINIDOKA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oakley, or 10 miles northeast of Oakley Reservoir, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burley, Rupert, Heyburn, Malta, Paul, Oakley, Declo, Albion, Elba,
Acequia, Yale Rest Area, Mt Harrison, Idahome and Interstate 84 And
86 Junction.

LAT...LON 4213 11383 4237 11406 4278 11359 4229 11314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 234DEG 33KT 4228 11381

Valle