Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday night.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue across eastern Idaho
this afternoon. This will be the last day for widespread convective
activity before our attention turns to heat, and lots of it! More on
that below. As an area of high pressure develops to our northwest,
gusty NE winds look to develop across the area tomorrow. Looks to
remain below wind advisory levels but will serve as a solid Lake
Wind Advisory across the American Falls Reservoir with the NE flow.
Temperatures through the weekend will be warm, above normal but not
oppressive, though gradually increasing a few degrees each day. The
real heat gets going on Monday. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. Anomalous high pressure
remains in place over East Idaho. Models have continued to waffle
the past several runs on the temperature ranges, largely due to
some convective elements sneaking into the solutions. We believe
this impact is suspect given the extreme heat in the models. Any
moisture availability is around or above 500mb, and thus believe
that the models are just auto-convecting and grabbing onto very
thin layer of moisture high up. Even if convection were to occur,
widespread cloud cover is not likely and should not have
significant downward impact on temperatures. Therefore we have
maintained temperature forecasts in line with previous forecasts
and above latest blended solutions (which would understandably
have a cooler component due to ensemble variability). This
variability is having an effect on the ensemble clusters as well,
interestingly, with a couple of the clusters indicating cooler
than normal conditions. Overall, we still firmly believe in a
long-duration heat event, likely extending well beyond day 7/8,
even if the top end of the range is squelched a little. Overnight
temperatures will stay elevated, and little relief is expected.
Excessive Heat Watch WILL remain in effect, and we will revisit
headlines daily for upgrade and/or extension in time beyond the
end of the next work week. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...
Red flag warning continues this afternoon for Zone 413 as scattered
storms are in place over the area.  Storms will quickly diminish
this evening and then we will transition to the beginning of our
advertised multi-day extreme heat event across central and eastern
Idaho. Temperatures slowly climb this weekend with the worst of the
heat expected to begin Monday and will likely continue through the
4th of July, perhaps beyond.  Drier surface air under the ridge will
produce low humidity, including poor recovery at mid slopes later on
next week. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast this afternoon and
into the early evening across all of eastern Idaho. KDIJ remains the
most likely location to see them but can't rule it out elsewhere so
will continue with VCTS wording. Gusty winds will be the primary
concern especially from tstm outflow. Thunderstorm potential
decreases throughout the evening with rain-free conditions for
Saturday. Winds will be breezy out of the NE tomorrow however
especially at KPIH and KIDA. VFR to prevail through the period
outside of any TSTMs. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Thursday
evening for IDZ051-055.

Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
evening for IDZ052>054-056>059-068>075.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ054.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1204 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

IDZ060-061-063-251900-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-Caribou Range ID-
1204 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTIES INCLUDING BEAR LAKE UNTIL 100 PM
MDT...

At 1200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm 8 miles
southwest of Georgetown, or 9 miles northwest of Montpelier, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and cloud to ground lightning will be
possible with this storm.

Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters
which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged
to seek safe harbor if possible.

LAT...LON 4200 11143 4200 11146 4240 11161 4248 11139
      4213 11104 4210 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 333DEG 5KT 4238 11146

McKaughan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
156 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

IDZ065-066-252045-
Centennial Mountains/Island Park ID-Teton Valley ID-
156 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TETON AND
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Gibson Meadows, or 12 miles east of Marysville, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Felt and Warm River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4380 11121 4413 11133 4422 11111 4420 11109
      4413 11109 4413 11105 4387 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 328DEG 12KT 4411 11117

McKaughan

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