Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
322 PM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Heat Advisory
continues for the Magic Valley zones through the evening. Shortwave
and boundary lifting north through the Central Mountains already
beginning to fire convection. We expect this activity to continue
through the evening, shifting north into MSO CWA but also
spreading east along the Divide toward Island Park. Another
concern for the evening is outflow from thunderstorm development
over Eastern Oregon/Western Idaho later today. Long- lived outflow
expected to reach Eastern Magic Valley mid-evening, with
potential significant uptick in wind speeds and gusts. This
activity should decrease after midnight. Expect additional
thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday, mainly over
southern/eastern higher elevations. Coverage better, but as with
storms today, most activity expected to be dry though HREF CAM
spread indicates a few storms could produce more than a tenth of
QPF tomorrow. Upper trough shifts east through Thursday, with any
lingering convection generally again over eastern/southern
highlands. PWAT looks more impressive Thursday, so there are
better expectations for wetting rains, along with strong gusty
outflows. Showers should linger along the Wyoming border/eastern
highlands through the night Thursday night. DMH

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. Starting out Friday, there may
be enough instability/moisture from the trof dropping south
through MT and WY to stir up some convective activity along the
Wyoming border. Once this passes, the high off the Pac NW coast
will drift slowly southeast until it's right over ID. Heights will
rise through the period. There is little chance of precipitation
as the high builds into the area, despite the deterministic GFS
trying to generate some diurnal convection early next week.
Temperatures will flirt with all time records by Monday and
Tuesday. Models have been showing this for days, boosting
confidence that heat advisories will be needed, or, more likely,
excessive heat watches/warnings. Unfortunately, this pattern looks
slow to break, resulting in these conditions continuing for days
beyond the end of the extended forecast period. Crawford

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions VFR through the forecast period. with mid-
level clouds clearing out of the central mountains conditions are
destabilizing. CAMS show scattered convection, which will probably
be farther north than SUN, but have left the inherited VCSH in the
TAF to communicate the potential for activity there. More activity
is expected tomorrow, but farther south. This won't develop until
after the TAF ends tomorrow, but may need to be considered at BYI in
the 00Z TAF issuance. Crawford

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Convection continuing to develop across the
central mountains this afternoon, spreading east along the Divide
into the Targhee NF. Scattered coverage expected over the Salmon-
Challis NF, especially the Breaks, becoming more isolated to the
east. Wetting rains are not expected most storms, but a few may
be more productive. Thunderstorm activity to the west should shove
a strong outflow boundary toward the East Idaho fire area this
evening, mainly affecting the Magic Valley area with a strong
shift to the west for the evening. A few showers could linger
past midnight, but otherwise expect a break in activity. Scattered
thunderstorms redevelop during the day Wednesday, mainly
south/east of the Snake Plain. Once again, isolated thunderstorms
may develop as far north as the Targhee NF. Although a slight
uptick in precipitation is expected, the thunderstorms should
remain dry with gusty outflows. Given the increased coverage
expected in the areas with critical fuels, a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued. This activity should linger through Thursday
night, and may continue through Friday along the Wyoming border.
Elsewhere, expect a drying and slightly cooler trend through
Thursday. After Friday, expect a strong dome of high pressure to
center over or just northwest of the region. Very hot and dry
conditions are currently expected for the weekend through mid-
week. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-055.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for IDZ413-427.

&&

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