Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
126 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Sunday)...
Near-record to record warmth continues today across eastern Idaho
before we get a little relief this weekend, although temps will
still run well above normal. A dry front is moving through the area
bringing a brief increase in cloud cover but skies will continue to
feature more sun than clouds for much of the remainder of the day.
Hi-res models continue to indicate the potential for some isolated
to scattered showers/storms primarily along the Divide through
Island Park. May see a few as well across the South Hills and along
the Utah border but these will be a bit more isolated in nature. Any
storms could produce brief gusty winds. Highs will top out in the
low to mid 90s across the lower elevations this afternoon.

Saturday will be cooler, but temps will still run above normal,
along with breezy conditions. Issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the
afternoon hours across the American Falls Reservoir. Additionally,
winds across the Arco Desert will be close to Wind Advisory levels
although held off on issuance for now as confidence is quite as
high. It'll be close though and the overnight shift may need to
issue one. Convective potential for Saturday should be more limited
and this time focused mainly in the far SE corner of the state along
the Utah border. As we move into Sunday, things may be a tad breezy
in the afternoon across the Upper Snake Plain, Arco Desert up
towards the Montana border. Otherwise, expect ample sunshine, no
precip and temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower
terrain. McKaughan

.LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
Monday looks dry as the main low reloads offshore, and a weaker
low still remaining near the southern California coast. It will be
breezy and just above average temperature-wise. This is shown in
all of the models and cluster forecasts. There general agreement
for Tuesday with a few showers and storms in the forecast. The
location will determine how quickly the weak low to the south
swings northeast and is absorbed into the flow around the main
storm offshore. Agreement and certainly quickly begin to fade
Wednesday and beyond. The camps are pretty evenly split between
the low remaining offshore and the low weakening and shifting
inland for Wednesday. The Blend of Models is leaning a bit more
toward the low inland (ECMWF) idea with some showers and storms
across northern locations. For the end of the week, the cluster
forecasts mostly show some type of ridge rebuilding across the
West (varying strengths at this point and similar to the
ECMWF)...with one showing low pressure remaining inland (similar
to the GFS). The Blend falls into the majority category with
perhaps a few storms along closer to the Montana border. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...
Another round of isolated showers and storms could impact TAF
sites into this evening. Gusts over 35kts are possible with little
rain expected. A low confidence forecast for tonight and Saturday
morning. Depending on what model you look at, there COULD be
pockets of showers lingering impacting particular airport or
airports. We included VCSH in the TAFs for this period, but we
could easily see nothing at all. For Saturday afternoon, most of
the expected storm develop will be across the southeast
corner...maybe close enough to include VCTS at PIH and certainly
DIJ. Again, gusty outflow winds would be the main risk. The
overall wind pattern will remain breezy through the rest of the
day and again Saturday. Sustained winds up to 20kts with higher
gusts are possible at all sites except SUN. However, it does
appear SUN should see a pattern shift toward a westerly gap wind
later in the afternoon vs the normal southerly wind. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ054.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

IDZ067-042130-
Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands ID-
239 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF GILMORE MOVING EAST TOWARD RURAL
WESTERN CLARK COUNTY AND SPENCER THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 235 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles east of Gilmore, moving east at 20 mph.

Brief heavy rain, half inch hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts
to 40 mph are possible with this storm as it moves east through
rural western Clark County toward Spencer through 330 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Edie School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4422 11226 4423 11287 4424 11281 4440 11281
      4442 11284 4444 11283 4446 11281 4449 11260
      4448 11258 4448 11254 4446 11250 4448 11247
      4446 11243 4445 11239 4449 11236 4453 11236
      4454 11234 4454 11233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 262DEG 17KT 4436 11284

Huston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
311 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

IDZ055-056-042200-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
311 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER RURAL SOUTHWESTERN CASSIA COUNTY
MOVING EAST TOWARD OAKLEY RESERVOIR AND CITY OF ROCKS THROUGH 400 PM
MDT...

At 308 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of thunderstorms
extending from near Oakley Reservoir to 22 miles east of Jackpot,
moving east at 15 mph.

Brief moderate rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and wind gusts
to 40 mph are possible with these storms as they shift east through
Oakley Reservoir and City of Rocks through 400 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Oakley Reservoir, Oakley, Elba and western City Of Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11405 4200 11428 4205 11428 4220 11410
      4230 11346 4199 11387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 258DEG 14KT 4215 11401 4200 11425

Huston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
351 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

IDZ067-042230-
Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands ID-
351 PM MDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF NICHOLIA MOVING EAST TOWARD SPENCER
AND HUMPHREY THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 348 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 26
miles northwest of Dubois, moving east at 25 mph.

Brief heavy rain, dime sized hail, frequent lightning, and wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible with this storm as it moves east across
rural western Clark County through 430 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Monida Pass and Edie School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 11218 4422 11277 4433 11282 4440 11281
      4448 11254 4446 11250 4448 11247 4446 11243
      4446 11241 4445 11239 4449 11236 4454 11235
      4454 11232 4455 11231 4456 11229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 253DEG 20KT 4433 11271

Huston