Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
240 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Current satellite imagery
shows an upper level low centered over northern AZ. Models are
still showing moisture and instability from this low bringing
thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail mainly over our
extreme southeast areas by the Bear Lake region. However, some
light showers and thunderstorms are again possible over the
southern Central mountains, the Montana Divide and the northern
Eastern Highlands.

Tuesday looks mostly dry in breezy southwest flow with a weak
trough moving through ahead of the next upper level low. Expect
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 40 mph mainly for the
Snake Plain and ridge tops. A lake wind advisory is effect for the
American Falls reservoir.

Wednesday look for moisture and instability moving back into the
area ahead of an upper level low models show centered just off the
OR/WA coast. Thunderstorm potential looks to be best for the
Montana Divide and Eastern Highlands areas. Models show some
indication that a few of thunderstorms could be severe.

Look for temperatures 4 to 8 degrees above normal today and 8 to
12 degrees above normal on Tuesday before dropping back to around
4 to 8 degrees above normal on Wednesday.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday.
Main weather feature for the extended period will be an upper-low
moving into the Pacific NW on Thursday with this feature
meandering across the Great Basin through the weekend. Models seem
to be in a bit more agreement on placement of this feature during
the late week and weekend, keep the center of the low to the west
of our area. This may keep things a bit warmer than previous
forecasts, although still cooler than normal, but still looks like
this time period will feature more clouds than sun. Precip
chances remain a good bet over all of the region, especially the
Central Mountains, with thunderstorms also possible each day. Snow
levels across the Central Mountains will be low enough to support
snow across the higher terrain. Still a bit of uncertainty on
snow levels though so something to keep an eye on over the next
few days. The low will eventually open up and eject north into
Alberta and Saskatchewan by early next week with a more zonal
upper-level pattern for the first part of next week. With cloud
cover and precip chances expected to be high through this period,
expect temps to be on the cooler side of normal into early next
week.
McKaughan

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Could see a very
isolated storm this afternoon at KSUN so maintained VCTS wording and
if storms do transpire, localized MVFR/IFR reductions would be
possible. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected across the rest of
the area. Winds will become light overnight but look to quickly
increase tomorrow after daybreak and becoming a bit gusty at times
at KPIH, KBYI and KIDA.
McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure center will eject east through the 4-
corners region today with lingering moisture supporting isolated
afternoon the SE highlands and in the Howe area. Dry and breezy
conditions follow Tuesday and Wednesday as the next upstream storm
system takes shape over Washington. Conditions turn wet and cooler
starting late Wednesday night and continuing through at least
Saturday as the low pressure system drops into the Great Basin. By
Saturday night, the models suggest that the system begins to open up
and eject north with a drying trend following by Monday.
Huston

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for IDZ054.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
537 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021

IDZ060-061-180015-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-
537 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 537 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dingle, or 7 miles northeast of Bear Lake Idaho Portion, moving south
at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters
which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged
to seek safe harbor if possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Bear Lake, Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught
on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11145 4219 11137 4217 11105 4200 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 347DEG 9KT 4215 11126

DMH