Alert archive / New Jersey / Tropical Storm Watches in 2021
Tropical Storm Watch 1008, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this tropical storm watch at Aug 20, 2021, 4:48 PM EDT for Middlesex County, Monmouth County, New Jersey. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2021, 4:48 PM EDT (20:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 20, 2021, 11:12 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 807 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
396
WTUS81 KPHI 202048
TCVPHI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL082021
448 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
NJZ013-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2048Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Monmouth-
448 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Freehold
- Howell
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 15 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ014-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2048Z-000000T0000Z/
Eastern Monmouth-
448 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Sandy Hook
- Asbury Park
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ012-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2048Z-000000T0000Z/
Middlesex-
448 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perth Amboy
- New Brunswick
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/phi
$$
MPS5 follow-up statements
093 WHUS71 KPHI 202109 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 509 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ANZ450-211200- /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2109Z-000000T0000Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 509 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. Potential for 30 to 50 kt winds. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...The strongest winds should occur late Saturday night through Sunday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas. && $$ MPS
726
WTUS81 KPHI 202110 CCA
TCVPHI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 20...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL082021
510 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
NJZ013-210500-
/O.COR.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2109Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Monmouth-
510 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Freehold
- Howell
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ014-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2110Z-000000T0000Z/
Eastern Monmouth-
510 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Sandy Hook
- Asbury Park
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ012-210500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1008.210820T2110Z-000000T0000Z/
Middlesex-
510 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perth Amboy
- New Brunswick
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/phi
$$
MPS633 WHUS71 KPHI 210049 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 849 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ANZ451>455-211200- /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0068.210821T1000Z-210822T1200Z/ Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 849 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ ANZ450-211200- /O.CON.KPHI.TR.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 849 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. Potential for 30 to 50 kt winds. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...The strongest winds should occur late Saturday night through Sunday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas. && $$
080
WTUS81 KPHI 210302
TCVPHI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL082021
1102 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
NJZ013-211115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.W.1008.210821T0302Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Monmouth-
1102 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Freehold
- Howell
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Saturday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for
storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable
areas.
- ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to
leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
in places where surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ014-211115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.W.1008.210821T0302Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Eastern Monmouth-
1102 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Sandy Hook
- Asbury Park
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Saturday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Storm surge flooding preparations should be
underway. Assemble disaster supplies and know your
evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.monmouthsheriff.org
$$
NJZ012-211115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.W.1008.210821T0302Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Middlesex-
1102 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perth Amboy
- New Brunswick
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Saturday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Storm surge flooding preparations should be
underway. Assemble disaster supplies and know your
evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation are possible with storm surge flooding.
Damage is likely to several buildings, mainly near tidal
creeks and rivers.
- Sections of near-bay escape routes and secondary roads
could become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/phi
$$994 WHUS71 KPHI 210312 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1112 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ANZ450-211615- /O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.W.1008.210821T0312Z-000000T0000Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1112 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Saturday evening until early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ451>455-211615- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0068.210821T1000Z-210822T1200Z/ Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 1112 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this tropical storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tropical storm watch went out at Aug 20, 3:45 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 3:45 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level trough will remain near our region through
this weekend. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Henri is expected to
track northward and then northeastward this weekend, however
it is anticipated to stay offshore of our coast as it
approaches the southern New England coast. A weak cold front
may then approach our region late Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM...An upper level trough remains centered to our west over the
Ohio Valley while Tropical Cyclone Henri was located well to our
south at this time several hundred miles off the southeast coast.
The rainfall that has been affecting the region has been associated
with an upper level disturbance as it moves through around the upper
level trough and the good news is this continues to wind down at
this hour as rainfall diminishes over Delmarva and southern NJ.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies persist across the area while
sunshine has broken out to our west over central PA. This has
allowed some pop-up showers to develop to our west driven by the
upper level trough and diurnally driven instability.
As we head through the late afternoon into this evening, any left
over steadier rain continues to diminish over Delmarva and NJ with
otherwise mostly cloudy skies persisting. It should be mainly precip
free though there will be the chance for some scattered pop-up
showers or storms, mainly over eastern PA where it's a bit more
unstable. These should diminish by the overnight hours. There may
also be some fog developing overnight as well.
By later tonight through Saturday, the upper low will continue to
sit over the east becoming centered near Virginia while Henri will
be moving north. This should place the storm several hundred miles
east of our southern coastal waters by late day Saturday. This will
make for a tricky forecast for the day Saturday. While the area
likely won't have any direct impacts from Henri during the day
Saturday, forecast models continue to suggest that another piece of
upper level energy moving around the upper low may tap into some of
the mid level moisture from Henri drawing it NW into the region.
This looks to set up increasing chances for rain/showers heading
through the day Saturday and there is definitely the potential
some of this rain could be quite heavy given PWATs over 2 inches
and a deep warm cloud layer. However given that confidence on
how this evolves and where it sets up is still not high, have
opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. That said,
highest threat for excessive rainfall during the day and the
risk of hydro issues currently looks to be over SE PA, southern
NJ, and Delmarva. It will remain humid for Saturday under
mostly cloudy skies with highs mostly in the low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Confidence growing for more impact from Tropical Storm Henri as
latest guidance continues to shift forecast track westward closer
towards New York City.
With the latest global and ensemble guidance continuing to shift
westward, we're becoming more confident in receiving at least minor
impacts from Henri, especially along portions of the New Jersey
Coast. Now that we are getting into some of the hi-res guidance's
window's, it has been interesting to see more and more solutions
taking the center of the storm onshore over Long Island this
afternoon. The major change appears to be in the speeding up of the
low and how quickly it interacts with the stalled upper-low over the
central Appalachians. Even without a direct impact, this outcome is
causing for more concern for our region, with coastal flooding and
heavy rainfall and gusty winds closer to the coast.
Perhaps the most bullish in this westward shift has been the
Canadian this afternoon, with but am not really buying that drastic
of a shift at this point. We are currently forecasting heavy
rainfall but perhaps just short of flash flood potential at this
point, which is also do the lack of certainty in just how far west
the heavy rain will protrude. Feel that some of the ensemble means
aren't catching up on the increasing forward speed and westward
nudge in the track.
With a heavily blended approach to QPF, decided not to issue any
flood watches at this time but more westward shift would likely
change this. The deterministic 1-2 inches of rainfall across our
northeastern NJ counties in a 12 to 24 hour period would probably be
handled without much concern. The biggest concern is likely to be
the coastal flooding in Monmouth and Ocean Counties (see coastal
flooding section below).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...A very warm/hot pattern looks to be in place along with
rather humid conditions. A weak cold front should slowly approach
Thursday night through Friday.
For Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper-level flow is forecast to be
generally more zonal. While weak surface high pressure will be
nearby Tuesday, a lee-side trough may be in place. There looks to be
a lack of forcing and therefore despite very warm/hot and humid
conditions in place, the potential for convective development looks
rather low. A bit more of the weak surface high pressure is over the
area Wednesday as a warm front is positioned to our north and we
await the arrival of a cold front, however perhaps an afternoon
shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled Wednesday mainly west of the
Fall Line. Heat indices could be right around 100 degrees for some
areas both afternoons.
For Thursday and Friday...A weak cold front approaches from the
northwest Thursday and with the continued more zonal flow aloft, the
front may slow as it gets closer to our area Friday. Despite the
slow arrival of the front, a zone of weak convergence ahead of the
front which could end being a lee-side trough may provide enough of
a focus for some convective development. As a result, the PoPs
increase into the chance range Thursday and especially Friday. At
this point, convection may be tied to the usual diurnal cycles. Heat
indices may be right near 100 degrees Thursday afternoon for some
areas.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight... Initially, mainly VFR. The main concern overnight
will be the potential for fog or low stratus development. This
will likely lead to at least MVFR restrictions overnight but
it could even go as low as IFR. Winds light and variable or
calm. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...MVFR restrictions likely to continue through much of
the morning before there may be some improvement to low VFR in
the afternoon. There will also be the chances for additional
rain/showers to develop. Winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday...MVFR to IFR conditions at times, especially at ACY and MIV
early with showers and thunderstorms as Henri passes northward
offshore. Northwesterly winds turning southwesterly into the evening
from 10 to 15 knots and 10 to 15 knots at ACY. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Mostly VFR with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon with associated restrictions possible. Westerly
winds from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. West-northwest winds less than 10 knots
Tuesday, becoming southwesterly at ACY. Winds favoring southwesterly
5-10 knots Wednesday. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight... Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Winds mostly
westerly today then more southerly or southeasterly this evening and
tonight, but speeds of only 5 to 10 kt are expected and winds may be
light and variable at times. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Saturday...Winds and seas start to increase with NE winds of at
least 10 to 15 knots likely by the afternoon and wave heights
over the ocean zones increasing to around 5 feet.
Outlook...
Sunday...SCA conditions likely, with high surf conditions possible
off the Monmouth and Ocean County coasts. Northerly winds turning
westerly into the late afternoon from 15 to 20 knots and gusting to
25 knots at times. Seas building to 5 to 8 feet on the ocean waters
and 2 to 3 feet near the mouth of the Delaware Bay.
Sunday Night...SCA conditions will begin to subside with seas
dropping to below 5 feet into the early morning. Westerly winds from
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots early, dropping below 20
knots into the morning.
Monday...Generally sub-advisory conditions with southwesterly winds
from 10 to 15 knots and seas from 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
Swells have increased substantially today on the Atlantic coast
based on buoys and webcams. Confidence is very high that the rip
current risk will be HIGH through Saturday evening. It is probable
that the rip current risk will remain HIGH on Sunday as well.
Entering the surf zone is strongly discouraged through the
weekend.
Conditions should improve early next week as the storm weakens
and moves into the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The evening high tides associated with the full moon will be
particularly high through the weekend. Forecast models have trended
toward a closer track of Henri to the Atlantic coast. As a result,
forecasts for tidal levels during the high tides this weekend have
trended slightly higher as well. However, to this point, guidance
remains consistent in forecast minor flooding during the Saturday
evening/night and potentially Sunday morning high tides on the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. The biggest question
mark is Raritan Bay and the northern New Jersey coast, which will be
closest to the tropical cyclone. Ensemble guidance suggests wide
spread in high tide forecasts for the Sunday morning high tide, with
potential for moderate flooding if Henri tracks very close to the
coast. All interests along the coast should stay updated on the
latest forecasts, as they are subject to large changes given
potential changes in the track of Henri.
For Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, mainly sub-advisory
flooding is expected this weekend, though cannot rule out more
widespread minor flooding during the Saturday night high tide.
For the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, no significant flooding is
expected this weekend.
Finally, surf will be approaching or exceeding 5 feet on the coast
Saturday and Saturday night, especially in Monmouth and Ocean
Counties. Some beach erosion is expected should swells reach these
levels. A high surf advisory may be required if the forecast of
Henri continues to trend westward.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for NJZ024>026.
High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for NJZ014.
DE...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
Synopsis...Gorse/Johnson
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/O'Brien
Short Term...Davis
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Davis/Fitzsimmons/Gorse
Marine...Davis/Fitzsimmons/Gorse
Tides/Coastal Flooding...CMSHazardous weather outlook, Aug 20, 10:59 AM EDT, 5 hours 49 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 DEZ001-211459- New Castle- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Castle County in Delaware. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ002-211459- Kent- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Delaware. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ003-211459- Inland Sussex- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Sussex County in Delaware. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ004-211459- Delaware Beaches- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of Sussex County in Delaware. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Rip Current Risk Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ054-211459- Carbon- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Carbon County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ055-211459- Monroe- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Monroe County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ060-211459- Berks- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Berks County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ061-211459- Lehigh- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lehigh County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ062-211459- Northampton- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northampton County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ070-211459- Delaware- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ071-211459- Philadelphia- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Philadelphia County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ101-211459- Western Chester- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Chester County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ102-211459- Eastern Chester- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Chester County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ103-211459- Western Montgomery- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Montgomery County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ104-211459- Eastern Montgomery- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Montgomery County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ105-211459- Upper Bucks- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Bucks County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ106-211459- Lower Bucks- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Bucks County in Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ001-211459- Sussex- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Sussex County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ007-211459- Warren- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Warren County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ008-211459- Morris- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Morris County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ009-211459- Hunterdon- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Hunterdon County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ010-211459- Somerset- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Somerset County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ012-211459- Middlesex- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middlesex County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ013-211459- Western Monmouth- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Monmouth County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ014-211459- Eastern Monmouth- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. There is a moderate risk of rip currents. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ015-211459- Mercer- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Mercer County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ016-211459- Salem- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Salem County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ017-211459- Gloucester- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gloucester County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ018-211459- Camden- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Camden County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ019-211459- Northwestern Burlington- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Burlington County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ020-211459- Ocean- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Ocean County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ021-211459- Cumberland- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cumberland County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ022-211459- Atlantic- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Atlantic County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ023-211459- Cape May- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape May County excluding the Atlantic coast in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ024-211459- Atlantic Coastal Cape May- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of Cape May County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Rip Current Risk Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ025-211459- Coastal Atlantic- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Atlantic County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Rip Current Risk Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ026-211459- Coastal Ocean- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Ocean County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Rip Current Risk Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Sunday. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ027-211459- Southeastern Burlington- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Burlington County in New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. MDZ012-211459- Kent MD- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Maryland. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. MDZ015-211459- Queen Annes- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Queen Annes County in Maryland. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. MDZ019-211459- Talbot- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Talbot County in Maryland. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. MDZ020-211459- Caroline- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Caroline County in Maryland. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ430-211459- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Delaware Bay. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ431-211459- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Delaware Bay. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ450-211459- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ451-211459- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Ocean County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ452-211459- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Atlantic County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Saturday. Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ453-211459- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Cape May County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ454-211459- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to the mouth of Delaware Bay out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ455-211459- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 1059 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Sussex County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 20, 12:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1259 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 AM TORNADO 1 WNW HATFIELD 40.28N 75.32W
08/19/2021 MONTGOMERY PA NWS STORM SURVEY
EF1 WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS UP TO 105 MPH.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES EARLY ON THE
MORNING OF AUGUST 19TH AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. WHAT STARTED AS A FAIRLY QUIET
DAY FOR OUR CWA QUICKLY BECAME BUSY AS NIGHT
FELL. AS A VELOCITY COUPLET FORMED ACROSS
MONTGOMERY COUNTY, A TORNADO FORMED ROUGHLY
A MILE AND A HALF SOUTH OF SOUDERTON, PA
AROUND 12:25 AM EDT, WHERE IT BROUGHT DOWN A
TREE BRANCH AND TORE SIDING OFF OF A
RESIDENCE ON GARRISON LANE. FROM THERE, THE
TORNADO APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED BRIEFLY
BEFORE BRINGING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREES AND
BRANCHES ALONG TOWNSHIP LINE ROAD. THE
TORNADO THEN BROUGHT DOWN SEVERAL TREES AND
BRANCHES IN THE HIDDEN SPRINGS MOBILE HOME
COMMUNITY. HERE, SEVERAL TREES WERE BROUGHT
DOWN ON HOMES AND ACROSS ROADWAYS WHILE ALSO
LEADING TO MINOR DAMAGE TO THE ROOFS AND
SIDING OF SEVERAL RESIDENCES IN THE
COMMUNITY. THE TORNADO THEN PROCEEDED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO HILLTOWN TOWNSHIP IN
BUCKS COUNTY AS IT BROUGHT DOWN NUMEROUS
TREES IN A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SILVERDALE.
SEVERAL TREES ALONG THIS LINE WERE ALSO
BROUGHT DOWN. A METAL ROOF WAS EVEN TORN OFF
OF A GARAGE ALONG GREEN STREET IN
SILVERDALE. SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES WERE THEN
BROUGHT DOWN, DAMAGING A ROOF TO A FARMHOUSE
ALONG SOUDERTON ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
ITS PATH NORTHEAST, BRINGING DOWN SMALL
TREES AND SNAPPING THE TOPS OF SEVERAL PINE
TREES AT RESIDENCES ALONG WOODLAWN DRIVE AND
BLUE SCHOOL ROAD. LASTLY, THE TORNADO BEGAN
TO LIFT AS IT NEARED THE OPPOSITE END OF
HILLTOWN TOWNSHIP, BUT NOT BEFORE IT RIPPED
A SECTION OF ROOFING OFF AN AUTO REPAIR SHOP
ALONG NORTH DUBLIN PIKE AT THE INTERSECTION
OF BLUE SCHOOL ROAD.
&&
GORSELocal storm report, Aug 20, 1:09 PM EDT, 3 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0238 AM TORNADO 1 W ROCKAWAY 40.90N 74.53W
08/19/2021 MORRIS NJ NWS STORM SURVEY
EF0 WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS UP TO 85 MPH.
ANOTHER VELOCITY COUPLET FORMED IN MORRIS
COUNTY EARLY IN THE MORNING OF AUGUST 19TH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION. A WEAK TORNADO FORMED FROM THIS
COUPLET, FIRST TOUCHING DOWN ALONG MOUNT
PLEASANT AVENUE AND IRWIN PLACE IN ROCKAWAY
TOWNSHIP, NEW JERSEY, WHERE SEVERAL SMALL
BRANCHES AND A PORTION OF A VINYL FENCE WERE
BROUGHT DOWN. FROM THERE, THE TORNADO MOVED
THROUGH A SUBDIVISION, BRINGING DOWN SEVERAL
SMALL PINE TREES AND BRANCHES ALONG LENOX
ROAD, ARLENE DRIVE, AND MILLER AVENUE. A FEW
SMALL BRANCHES WERE THEN BROUGHT DOWN AS THE
TORNADO PROCEEDED NORTHEAST ACROSS FLEETWOOD
DRIVE. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED INTERSTATE
80, SNAPPING SEVERAL TREES ALONG RESERVOIR
AND KATHERINE ROAD. A FEW LARGE BRANCHES
WERE ALSO KNOCKED DOWN IN THIS AREA AS THE
TORNADO LIFTED.
&&
GORSEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 8:15 PM EDT | Rip Current Statement | PHI | Atlantic, Cape May, Ocean | 3 days |
| Aug 20, 3:08 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | PHI | Cumberland | 37 min |
| Aug 20, 3:10 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | PHI | Atlantic | 35 min |
| Aug 20, 7:25 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | PHI | 65 min | |
| Aug 20, 8:20 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | PHI | 55 min | |
| Aug 20, 8:45 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | PHI | 60 min | |
| Aug 20, 9:36 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Ocean | 3 hr |
| Aug 20, 3:13 PM EDT | Rip Current Statement | PHI | Monmouth | 60 hr |
Nearby
Tropical Storm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Every tropical storm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.