Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
249 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture on the van of the hurricane Ida remnant is expected to fuel
widespread and enhanced rainfall across the Upper Ohio Valley Region
on Tuesday night and Wednesday. In the meantime, warm and humid
weather continues with periodic scattered showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No appreciable change was needed to the forecast as sct to nmrs
shwrs and tstms can be expected as a weak shortwave traverses the
broad ern conus ridge and interacts with the warm, humid airmass ovr
the Upr OH.

Severe potential wl be limited to isolated, and marginally severe
wind gust via tstm downburst as per sufficiently dry mid lvl air and
downdraft CAPE on the order of a 1000 j/kg. Otherwise, with pcp water
at approx. 1.75 in, locally heavy rain wl rmn the problem although
mid level flow has improved cell movement and alleviated that
potential somewhat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary will advance south into the Pittsburgh area on
Monday. The front should lose forward motion a bit as the associated
trough lifts back towards Quebec, placing the Upper Ohio Valley in
quasi-zonal flow aloft... or nearly parallel to the frontal boundary
/ baroclinic zone. Thunderstorms and showers are likely to develop
along this area of convergence. A narrow band of localized flooding,
orientated west to east, could develop if the boundary remains
stationary for a long period of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Tuesday night, remnants of Ida will progress up through the TN
Valley and over central Appalachia. The system will begin to phase
with the northern stream as it approaches our area late Tuesday and
into Wednesday.

The worst case scenario if the track continues to hold is a swath of
heavy rainfall as the tropical remnant interacts with the cold core
trough/cold front. The timing of the Ida and the front remain in
question.

Slightly cooler and drier conditions are anticipated late week and
into the Labor Day Weekend with building high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely this aftn/eve, mainly between
18z-23z, coincident with peak heating. Storm motion will be slow to
the east, with outflow boundaries becoming the main driver for new
development. Though convection should dissipate this evening, a
shortwave trough to the north may provide enough upper support to
fuel additional waves of sct shra/iso tsra overnight.

Moist convection/convergence ahead of this shortwave and its
approaching sfc front should result in more widespread MVFR/IFR
stratus development. This will favor the eastern ridges and locations
north of PIT, with lesser confidence south and west. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day Monday,
forming primarily along a decaying sfc front.

.Outlook...
Rain chances and widespread restrictions are likely late Tuesday
into Wednesday with the approach and passage of Hurricane Ida
remnants, favoring areas south and east of Pittsburgh.

VFR and dry weather is expected after the remnants exit Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
338 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-300745-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
338 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase Tuesday
and Wednesday as the remnants of tropical system Ida move into the
Ohio Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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