Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
457 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chance will continue until high pressure
begins to build on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Overall forecast trend remains on track as showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop slowly eastward in response to an encroaching
frontal zone/longwave trough.

Isolated storms will likely remain marginally severe this evening
with wind gusts being the threat. Mid level lapse rates are not
favorable nor is overall effective shear. Still downbursts due to a
dry mid level air southeast of Pittsburgh are anticipated as is some
tree damage due to precipitation elsewhere across the area. That
threat will subside as stabilization occurs with loss of sfc heating.

Given mid level warmth and high precip. water, efficient rain
producers should be expected; however, cell progression and lack of
an organized convergence area preclude the need for a flash flood
watch at moment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and more localized thunderstorms will continue Saturday as
the upper trough slowly moves southeast, helping to push the sfc cold
front through the region. The lack of instability and moist mid-
levels should mitigate any severe threat despite stronger jet
support. However, flooding concerns may persist for locations with
already saturated grounds as ample moisture will remain in the
region. With fropa not expected until later in the day, temperature
should hold near seasonal averages Saturday.

Precipitation chances will lower Saturday night into Sunday morning
with fropa, as dry air/subsidence fills in its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drier and more seasonable conditions should return Sunday into Monday
under the influence of sfc high pressure, though an isolated shower
can't be ruled out as the cold core of the upper trough will sit near
the area.

Periodic precipitation chances is expected to return by mid-week as
the upper pattern will transitions to northwest flow with embedded
shortwaves over the eastern Great Lakes in response to building
central U.S. ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue
overnight into Saturday as the upper trough and sfc cold front slowly
move across the region. Outside of convection, expect deteriorating
cigs as moisture pools ahead of the front, with improving cigs/drier
conditions after fropa.

.Outlook...
VFR and mostly dry conditions are likely Sunday and Monday under the
influence of high pressure. Periodic precipitation chances are likely
again by mid week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
WVZ001>004-171700-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threat from the storms will be damaging winds,
while heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may cause isolated flooding
problems through Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ023-031-073>076-WVZ012-021-509>514-171700-
Indiana-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threat from the storms will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening. The main threat from the storms will be damaging winds,
while heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
545 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OHZ039-040-049-050-058-059-162230-
Guernsey-Jefferson-Tuscarawas-Harrison-Belmont-Carroll-
545 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN
GUERNSEY...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN BELMONT AND EASTERN TUSCARAWAS
COUNTIES...

At 544 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Philadelphia to near Freeport.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Philadelphia...               Dover...
Uhrichsville...                   Cadiz...
Carrollton...                     Freeport...
Dennison...                       Gnadenhutten...
Tuscarawas...                     Hopedale...
Scio...                           Adena...

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 78 and 82.

These storms may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4050 8153 4073 8108 4056 8093 4019 8078
      4014 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 240DEG 32KT 4045 8141 4024 8125

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
551 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE EVANS CITY         40.79N  80.03W
07/16/2021                   BUTLER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2101980

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
554 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUTLER                  40.86N  79.90W
07/16/2021                   BUTLER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES ON NORTH JACKSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2101981

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N KITTANNING          40.90N  79.52W
07/16/2021                   ARMSTRONG          PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ON HOUSE MOSGROVE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2101982

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
601 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

PAZ031-WVZ004-012-021-509-162230-
Greene-Marshall-Marion-Monongalia-Wetzel-
601 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...NORTHWESTERN MONONGALIA...
NORTHEASTERN WETZEL...MARSHALL AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 601 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Hundred, or
10 miles north of Mannington, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mannington...                     Barrackville...
Fairview...                       Hundred...
Cassville...                      Rivesville...
Grant Town...                     Farmington...
Blacksville...                    Spraggs...
Mount Morris...                   New Freeport...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 4, and
  between mile markers 7 and 10.
  Interstate 79 in West Virginia between mile markers 157 and 160.

This storm may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3952 8057 3980 8059 3985 8011 3968 8003
      3951 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 257DEG 19KT 3967 8040

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
613 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OHZ040-049-050-059-WVZ001>003-162300-
Jefferson-Harrison-Belmont-Carroll-Brooke-Ohio-Hancock-
613 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN HARRISON...JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...
NORTHEASTERN BELMONT...OHIO...BROOKE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Carrollton to near
Cadiz. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Weirton...                        Steubenville...
Cadiz...                          Wellsburg...
West Liberty...                   Clearview...
Toronto...                        Wintersville...
Mingo Junction...                 Follansbee...
Hooverson Heights...              Tiltonsville...

LAT...LON 4055 8098 4057 8052 4013 8052 4017 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 260DEG 31KT 4050 8095 4022 8096