Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
411 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today with a crossing
cold front. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances should continue
Monday and Tuesday before high pressure return dry and cooler weather
by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Current conditions across the area feature the cold front located
around Ashtabula County OH and stretching southwest to roughly the
Cincinnati area. This boundary is slowly pushing southeast with
stout convection ahead of it. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
continue for a few more hour. Plentiful surface based cape around
3000 J/Kg in OH along with the front forcing has kept convection
going for quite a awhile. This has been the case into the WV counties
as the assistance from the terrain and a remnant boundary from this
mornings convection, has kept heavy rainfall into the WV counties
and will continue into this evening. The only other concern has been
north of I-70 where daytime heating is finally maxing but it having
still a tough time with weak midlevel instability. A few storms have
developed up north but are struggling due to the weak mid level
instability and some weak warming. Any storms that continue to
develop will pose a significant wind threat. Timing has the strongest
convection waning by 22Z.

As the front moves through tonight, winds will decouple a bit
quickly, especially to the south so have put a bit of fog into the
forecast.

Previous Discussion...As evidence by the 12z PIT observation
sounding, sufficient shear (near 40kt 0-6km) and instability
(2000-2500j/kg fcst surface CAPE) will aid in the development of
severe storms coincident with ample sfc convergence via
frontogenesis. Considering the hodograph, multi- cellular organized
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts proceeding outflow boundaries
look probable. Initially, cells will carry a large hail threat before
transitioning to a cold pool dominant complex, capable of 60-70 mph
wind gusts.

The highest chance of seeing this potential will be this
afternoon during peak heating, as the front is expected to be located
from NW PA to SE OH. SPC has this area, and points E-SE, in the
Slight Risk/scattered coverage area for potential severe
thunderstorms. FROPA should occur earlier for the W-NW, where a
lesser Marginal/isolated potential for severe storms exists.

Locally heavy rain is possible in poorly drained areas, though quick storm
movement should be sufficient to preclude a significant flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching Great Lakes shortwave trough is expected to approach
the region Monday, along with a secondary cold front.
Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms are again expected to
develop with the increasing shortwave support, and jet driven ascent.
Strong unidirectional shear and dry mid level air should result in
the possibility for severe thunderstorms, though the amount of
instability is less notable than Sunday. SPC has most of the
forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Monday.

Another reinforcing trough should maintain scattered showers/storms
for Tuesday, though instability and shear levels look to be too low
for any organized severe thunderstorm potential. Dry weather should
return Tuesday night as sfc high pressure builds upstream of a
developing Ern CONUS long wave trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model blends indicate that high pressure should result in dry and
cooler than average weather Wed and Thu. Another trough approaching
from the Upper Midwest may result in precipitation chance for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are forming up ahead of a cold front,
mainly south of Pittsburgh initially. Expect more storms to bloom
areawide through the rest of the afternoon. Have included TEMPO
groups for when individual terminals have the best chance of seeing
convection. Any storm will be capable of strong wind gusts, hail, and
IFR visibilities.

The showers and thunderstorms should end this evening as the front
completes its passage, with VFR returning. Some patchy fog will be
possible overnight, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall.

.Outlook...
Periodic rain chances from passing shortwaves within a developing
eastern U.S. trough may also create intermittent restrictions through
Tuesday.  VFR under high pressure is expected by mid-week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

OHZ039>041-048-049-057-058-068-PAZ007>009-013-140730-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Muskingum-Guernsey-
Noble-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania and southwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The main
hazard is expected to be damaging wind, though large hail is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind and large hail possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ050-059-069-PAZ014>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514-140730-
Jefferson OH-Belmont-Monroe-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening. The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind, though
large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind and large hail possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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