Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the
passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably
cool conditions for the first half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave will finish its exit through the region shortly, pushing
most convection east while leaving a residual trail of cloud cover.
Though storms may continue north of I-80 due weak sfc convergence,
the main focus will be on scattered shower and thunderstorm
development ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough this afternoon
and early evening.

Storms could become severe with damaging wind and large hail the
primary threats in part due to abundant shear and increasingly dry
mid-level air. However, there are two factors that may limit the
threat, keeping confidence low that one even develops. The first
factor is waning upper support as the sfc feature lags behind the
exiting shortwave; more limited storm coverage is the likely outcome
of this. The other factor is instability, or the lack thereof, at
the moment given excessive cloud cover from this morning's
convection. Very simply: more heating/destabilization is needed to
foster robust storm development and tap into the shear/dry air to
create the severe threat.

Overnight, additional weak shortwaves and the passage of the sfc cold
front may aid iso/sct showers with localized thunder. Otherwise,
drier conditions are expected due to building high pressure and dry, cold
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on Friday with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. Temperatures will run
below seasonal averages under cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another shortwave within the broad eastern U.S. upper trough will
push a weak sfc cold front through the region Sunday, increasing
precipitation chances.

High pressure should resume influence over the upper Ohio River
Valley heading into next week under weak upper troughing, with
temperature near to slightly below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Initial activity associated with a shortwave trough/MCV is currently
exiting the region, with MGW/DUJ possibly keeping a brief
restriction right at TAF time.

Another round of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in association with a pre-frontal trough during
the afternoon. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity
remains, and depends on the degree of destabilization that we can
achieve. Still, elected to keep a period of VCTS for several hours,
and tried to time the most likely period of impact in TEMPO groups at
the terminals. A direct hit will likely result in a brief period of
IFR/LIFR visibility and perhaps strong wind gusts.

Activity should dissipate/move off this evening with the departure of
the trough and the loss of instability. As the cold front drops
across the region overnight, a period of MVFR ceilings and mist is
possible at most terminals. Once daytime mixing commences on Friday,
ceilings will likely break, and VFR conditions and light northwest
wind will develop by midday.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MECHANICSTOWN     40.61N  80.99W
07/29/2021                   CARROLL            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND UTILITY POLES DOWN ALONG STATE ROUTE 39

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2102029

MPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N DURBIN              39.94N  80.48W
07/29/2021                   GREENE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN RICHHILL TWP. ALONG DAY
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2102030

FLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
734 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

PAZ029-031-WVZ509-300000-
Greene-Washington-Monongalia-
734 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND
NORTHWESTERN MONONGALIA COUNTIES...

At 734 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Cameron, or 14 miles west of Waynesburg, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesburg...                     Cassville...
Rogersville...                    Aleppo...
Blacksville...                    Mount Morris...
New Freeport...                   Spraggs...
Pentress...                       Wana...
Brave...                          Daybrook...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 12.
  Interstate 79 in West Virginia between mile markers 157 and 160.

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3980 8052 3994 8052 3998 8049 3987 8009
      3968 8002 3961 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 303DEG 39KT 3988 8045

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
819 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW IDEAL              40.61N  79.09W
07/29/2021                   INDIANA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF STRUCTURE; TIME ESTIMATE BASED ON
            RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2102031

MF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
832 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

PAZ031-075-WVZ021-509>512-300100-
Greene-Fayette-Eastern Preston-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and
Northwestern Preston-Marion-Monongalia-Preston-
832 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN
FAYETTE...MONONGALIA...PRESTON AND NORTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES...

At 832 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Cassville, or
near Star City, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morgantown...                     Westover...
Kingwood...                       Star City...
Terra Alta...                     Rowlesburg...
Point Marion...                   Granville...
Brookhaven...                     Cassville...
Reedsville...                     Masontown...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 24.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 11.
  Interstate 79 in West Virginia between mile markers 143 and 160.

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3968 8032 3988 8016 3973 7978 3972 7978
      3972 7975 3961 7948 3922 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 300DEG 38KT 3968 8006

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