Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Looks like the "main" event is getting going in southeast
Missouri. The latest HRRR is an hour or two slower than runs from
earlier this morning. With a strong northward component to the
storm motion, it will be a slow eastward drag across the area
through 00Z.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

A vigorous mid level low will move northeast negative tilt from
the southern Plains early this morning, to NW IL by this evening.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will enter our SEMO counties
this morning, reaching central sections of the CWFA from southern
IL to west KY by midday, and then southwest IN into the KY
Pennyrile by early to mid afternoon.

SPC continues to advertise a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms, with the slight from southern IL into southwest IN. Strong
deep layer shear is forecast. However with an increasingly
unidirectional profile with time, given the overall meridional
like flow, and modest instability, severe weather will likely be
isolated, within more intense clusters and / or line segments.
Locally damaging winds seems to be most likely. However, with
decent sfc-H8 directional shear seen, (850mb winds 40 to 50 kts),
a brief spin up, low end TOR or two seems possible.

It will be breezy today. At this time, we continue to follow
guidance that falls just short of Wind Advisory criteria. We'll be
close. But for now will hold, and the day shift can make a final
determination. Otherwise it will be warm again today, though not
as warm as Sunday.

The activity will end quickly by early evening, with dry weather
the rest of the night into Tuesday. Albeit temporary, we'll see
lower dew point air spread across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Models are in good agreement showing a surface low centered over
South Dakota by midday Wednesday.  This low will lift a warm front
toward and across the PAH forecast area late Tuesday night and
through the day Wednesday. Showers and some thunderstorms will be
possible across the Ozark Foothills in southeast Missouri before
daybreak Wednesday, then chances will increase and spread across the
entire PAH forecast area during day Wednesday.

By Wednesday night, the associated cold front will be moving toward
the area, pushing into west/northwest portions of the PAH fa by 12z
Thursday.  As the cold front runs into surface high pressure over
the southeast U.S., the front will lay out across our region into
Friday.  Shower chances will increase from west to east Wednesday
night, increasing to likely across most of our area by Thursday
afternoon.  High chances will continue into Thursday night, then as
another surface low moves along the front, widespread showers will
return through the day Friday.  The more significant rainfall will
be Friday into Friday evening, Due to the approach of the low and
daytime heating, and with some thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and evening. By late Friday night into Saturday, the low
will finally help pull the front eastward, and shower chances will
decrease from west to east.  Just a few showers may linger in our
far eastern counties by Saturday afternoon.

Dry conditions will return to our region for Saturday night into
Sunday as high pressure builds over the central and southern Plains.
Much cooler and drier air will filter into our region behind the
front.

Temperatures will remain well above normal Tuesday night through
Thursday night.  By Friday and Friday night, clouds and rain will
bring temperatures down to near seasonable readings.  Northwest flow
will result in cooler than normal readings Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Mentioned TSRA for a 2 to 3 hour period at all sites. Confidence
better west, so TEMPO groups were used, but just stuck with VCTS
at KEVV and KOWB. MVFR or lower conditions will be possible in the
precipitation, but otherwise kept the forecasts VFR. There is some
potential for MVFR or lower VFR ceilings to swing up through KMVN
this evening, but kept it above 3kft for now. Strong south winds
will continue through sunset, with just a slight decreasing trend
through the afternoon. If winds weaken substantially toward
sunrise some light fog formation cannot be ruled out at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
341 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
341 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to move across
the region today. A few may be strong to locally severe. Damaging
wind appears to be the primary hazard. A brief, low end tornado or
two cannot be ruled out. The activity will push east and out of
southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile region by early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, and again Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. The main concern will be heavy rain and lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE WINGO             36.58N 88.71W
10/11/2021                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN. ANOTHER TREE DOWN ON 348 JUST
            EAST OF SYMSONIA. RELAYED THROUGH KY DOT.

&&

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
117 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

ILZ081-082-084-085-088-089-092-093-111900-
Alexander IL-Franklin IL-Jackson IL-Hamilton IL-Union IL-Johnson IL-
Williamson IL-Pulaski IL-
117 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Union,
Pulaski, western Johnson, Williamson, eastern Jackson, Alexander,
Franklin and southwestern Hamilton Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Johnston City to near Dongola to 6 miles
north of Charleston. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Herrin, Johnston City and Energy around 120 PM CDT.
  West Frankfort around 125 PM CDT.
  Benton, Goreville, Tamms and Lake Of Egypt Area around 130 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Marion, Dongola,
Pittsburg, Karnak, Vienna, Thompsonville and Creal Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8859 3791 8869 3791 8871 3723 8898
      3718 8907 3707 8918 3702 8918 3698 8914
      3698 8919 3707 8926 3707 8931 3706 8931
      3702 8926 3699 8927 3699 8929 3704 8938
      3709 8938 3714 8942 3782 8910 3812 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 214DEG 55KT 3778 8895 3744 8913 3700 8933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJP