Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
653 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Our region is divided between a warm/sunny day underneath upper
ridging across the east and a rainy/cloudy day across southeast
Missouri associated with an upper disturbance. A decent amount of
lightning has been noted with this activity through the day. The
convection is expected to gradually wane in intensity/coverage by
late afternoon, with a lull expected into the early overnight hours.

As additional energy propagates into southeast Missouri, showers
will develop overnight into the morning hours. With the dry easterly
flow in place across the east half of the area, this activity should
continue to struggle to make much eastward progress. However, we may
see a bit more precip into far west KY and southwest IL on Friday.

As the upper low over the southwest U.S. ejects into the southern
Plains, southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday night. At the
same time, more of a southerly component develops at the surface.
This induces moisture advection northeastward through the area, and
we should gradually see rain chances increase Friday night into
Saturday area wide. Instability should be sufficient for some
isolated thunderstorms through most of this period as well. With
higher pwats in place, some locally heavy downpours will be possible
on Saturday. WPC has us outlooked in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

Temperatures remain above normal through the short term. Highs will
range from the upper 70s in the west to mid 80s in the east the next
two days. Meanwhile, overnight lows look to remain in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

An unsettled period of weather is in store for the extended portion
of the forecast. At this time, the most unsettled weather will
impact the region Sunday through Monday. On Sunday, models are in
good agreement that a potent H5 trough will dip southeast from the
Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, low
pressure over the southern Plains will translate northeast into the
lower Great Lakes by 12z Monday, with an associated trailing cold
front plowing south and east. Model guidance is pretty bullish in
developing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE over the region Sunday afternoon,
co-located with about 25-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Ensemble
guidance also depicts elevated precipitable water values (around the
90th percentile) during this time. Putting it all together, the
potential is there for numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Sunday evening, with the possibility of a strong or severe
storm and locally heavy rain. Stay tuned for updates. High
temperatures will be near seasonable values in the middle to upper
70s.

For Monday and beyond, forecast models are consistent in depicting a
cut-off H5 trough building south from Canada...and lingering for
several days. With H5 temperatures of -15 to -20C progged to be
over the region, any solar insolation will result in widespread
cloud development as well as isolated to scattered showers during
the afternoon through early evening hours. The associated clouds
and chances for precipitation will keep temperatures around normal
values for early October, with high temperatures in the lower to
middle 70s and overnight low temperatures in the lower to middle
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Rain chances will gradually diminish during the first six hours of
the forecast period near KCGI before chances increase overnight.
Relatively dry conditions should prevail at KPAH, with dry
conditions further east at KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB.

VFR conditions should continue to dominate during this forecast
period. Increasing chances for rain may reach the KPAH TAF site
again between 18z Friday to 00z Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...DWS
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-012030-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight across
southeast Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chances for thunderstorms will primarily be across southeast
Missouri on Friday and then over the entire region Saturday into
Sunday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out on Sunday. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

ILZ088-092-MOZ087-010215-
Alexander IL-Union IL-Cape Girardeau MO-
849 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Union,
north central Alexander and east central Cape Girardeau Counties
through 915 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ware, or 7 miles southwest of Jonesboro, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ware around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Trail Of Tears
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 8925 3724 8939 3747 8954 3754 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 153DEG 20KT 3736 8935

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SMITH