Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Scattered diurnal popcorn convection is actively bubbling up in
mainly our northern half of the area. The potential for better
organization is definitely to the north, where a little mid level
energy resides, but this will have to be watched closely thru the
early evening hours, as it maintains potential for sneaking into
our northern tier counties (marginal risk zone) til sunset.

Afterwards, the boundary itself sags, if not with the energy, and
pops actually increase overnight with this boundary introduction.
That'll reside in/around the area continuing into tmrw, and with
daytime heating, CAPEs increase enough to warrant another marginal
risk zone in the vicinity of the boundary, at least during the
daytime heating hours.

High pops continue thru the remainder of the forecast with the
boundary's presence. Due to high PW's and increasing low level
winds with integrated water vapor transport peaking mid to late
afternoon Friday, potential for heavy rain increases with time.
Excessive rain outlook now mirrors with a marginal to slight risk
across the area thru Days 2-3.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

During the extended forecast period, the general pattern will be a
closed low and trough in the northeast and a broad southwest-
northeast oriented ridge centered across Utah and Wyoming.

For the period from Sunday through Tuesday, intermittent minor
shortwaves will rotate along the western edge of the mean trough
axis that will move south of the region by Sunday afternoon. With
the mean 1000 to 500 mb Relative humidity greater than 50%, may not
be able to go non-zero for rain chances at least through Monday, as
the surface boundary lags slightly behind the upper forcing.

Northwest flow and drier weather will dominate from Tuesday through
Wednesday night, as northwest flow and the eastern limb of the
western U.S. ridge builds into the area.

The NBM appeared to bullish with six hourly PoPs across the southern
third of the WFO PAH forecast area in the extended period. Adjusted
down to 75% of the mean NBM PoP value and worked in collaboration
with surrounding NWS offices to reflect this downward trend in rain
chances.  Still have some doubt that rain chances will even exceed
15 percent in some areas along the AR/MO/TN/KY border, but will keep
for now for blending purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Diurnal VFR bases mainly around 4-6K FT AGL may see some temporary
broken bases work in at that height or above, as vicinity
showers/storms last thru the diurnal heating hours. Overnight, a
southward sagging boundary increases rain chances, while lowering
bases and offering potential restricted cigs in the MVFR or lower
cats where thunderstorms may be most active (north). Tmrw will be
feature more louds amidst a more active convective chance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
158 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
158 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm capable of
damaging winds late this afternoon or early evening, mainly across
the northern reaches of our area, especially near the I-57 and
I-64 junction and corridor of southern Illinois.

More commonplace storm hazards will be lightning and heavy rain,
including for the entire area through tonight.

The heat index this afternoon will peak near 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists for nearly the
entire area during the day on Friday, with damaging winds the
primary severe weather hazard. More commonplace storm hazards will
be lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Storm chances continue almost daily through Wednesday, with
lightning and heavy rain the main hazards to expect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to remain weather alert and monitor the
latest forecasts and updates.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ILZ076-082-152030-
Hamilton IL-Wayne IL-
301 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Mcleansboro, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mcleansboro, Dahlgren and Belle Prairie City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 8838 3804 8870 3826 8870 3837 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 251DEG 19KT 3817 8868

York

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
424 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

MOZ076-152200-
Perry MO-
424 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Perryville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perryville, Lithium and Silver Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 8977 3767 9008 3770 9009 3782 9000
      3787 8993 3787 8990 3788 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 247DEG 17KT 3773 9001

SMITH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
436 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KYZ009-152200-
Calloway KY-
436 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CALLOWAY COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

At 435 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murray, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 8822 3664 8842 3674 8833 3669 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 211DEG 16KT 3664 8828

SMITH