Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Quite the active period as we head into and through the weekend.
Stalled out surface front just south of the area currently firing
off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lift back north as a warm front tonight as short wave
energy tries to dive southeast within the broad nly flow aloft.
Several CAMs do suggest scattered thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon just north of the surface feature out in se MO.
MLCAPES are currently running in the 2500-4000 J/KG range, but
vertical shear is weak. Will need to monitor for a few stronger
storms late afternoon into the early evening in that region,
before instability wanes with the loss of heating.

Aforementioned short wave aloft is expected to kick off a complex
of thunderstorms this evening in the Midwest. This
complex/possible MCS is still expected to dive southeast toward
the forecast area later tonight. Latest 12z CAMs seem quite a bit
slower with the system as compared to 12 hours ago. Thus, the
forecast timing has been delayed in our area til generally around
or after midnight. Good news may be the later it takes the system
to arrive (assuming it does arrive), the lesser the risk for the
severe storms...especially once you get to along and south of the
OH River. ECMWF Ensemble Awareness Table is suggesting PWATs 2.5
to 3.5 SD above climo norms, so will also need to monitor for some
locally heavy rainfall amounts, esp if storms can train.

On Saturday, focus shifts to a deep mid level short wave and
associated surface low digging southeast into IA/MO. An impulse
rotating around the southern flank of the parent upper low may
combine with a surface front coming east into the Mid MS River
Valley later Saturday afternoon, and more likely Saturday evening,
to give much of the region another wave of possibly strong
convection and heavy rainfall. Once again, PWATs could be running
quite high for this time of year.

The entire system is then expected to grind to nearly a halt late
Saturday night and Sunday, prolonging the threat of more waves of
storms and locally heavy rainfall. Would not be terribly
surprised if flash flood watches are needed with time, but will
hold off on headlines for this package. Thinking is most areas can
take a shot of heavier rainfall tonight without major impacts. One
hr Flash flood guidance for most locations is currently running
from around 2.3 to 3 inches. All in all, does not look to be the
best weekend for outdoor activities, though there should be some
rainfree periods in between waves of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Models continue to show our pesky upper level low, over northern
Missouri/southern Iowa on Monday, opening up and lifting over the
Great Lakes region by midday Tuesday.  The trof will extend back
over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys through Tuesday
night.  This will continue scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the PAH forecast area Monday, with some
decrease in chances Monday night. Chances will increase again during
the day Tuesday with daytime heating (good chance west to likely
east), dropping of to slight to low chances pops Tuesday night.

By Wednesday through Friday, models diverge in their solutions with
the movement and timing of a surface low over the Central Plains and
associated boundaries.  With plentiful low level moisture, daily
convection will remain possible, with the best chances during the
heat of the day.  Model blends keep pops through the period in the
slight to chance categories at best, which seems a good way to go
for now.

Clouds and precipitation will help keep temperatures well below
normal Monday, with highs in the 80 to 85 degree range.  Persistent
south to southwest flow will result in a warming trend through mid
week, with highs by Wednesday through Friday back to seasonable
readings around 90 degrees.  Overnight lows will follow the same
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

A stray shower or possibly a thunderstorm may sneak into the
vicinity of PAH late this afternoon as a frontal boundary lifts
north. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move into the
forecast area later tonight (aft 03z) into early Saturday
morning. Confidence is still low regarding placement and timing.
Winds will be mainly light and variable, except in thunderstorms.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RT
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-100830-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into
early Saturday morning. Damaging winds and localized flooding are
the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
localized flooding will be the main hazards.

From Sunday through Thursday, there is a chance of thunderstorms
each day. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Strong winds
and heavy rain will be the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested tonight and again on
Saturday.

DWS/CN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MOZ108-092200-
Ripley MO-
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RIPLEY COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Doniphan, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Doniphan, Budapest, Oxly, Fairdealing and Briar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9098 3681 9081 3681 9063 3668 9063
      3668 9059 3665 9059 3650 9071 3650 9073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 225DEG 15KT 3664 9083

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 PM CDT FRI JUL 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DONIPHAN          36.63N 90.83W
07/09/2021                   RIPLEY             MO   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE DOWN ON Y HIGHWAY NEAR DONIPHAN.
            PEA TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL LAST AROUND 5
            MINUTES. MINOR STREET FLOODING IN DONIPHAN.
            HIGHEST REPORTED WIND GUST 35 MPH.

&&

KES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
436 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MOZ109-092215-
Butler MO-
436 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hendrickson to near Harviell. Movement was
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Fisk, Harviell, Hendrickson and Rombauer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 9062 3691 9056 3692 9027 3686 9025
      3666 9014 3661 9021 3658 9053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 249DEG 13KT 3687 9054 3662 9043

SMITH