Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

A surge of tropical moisture was apparent on satellite and radar
images today as the westward limb of a mid level ridge centered
over the Atlantic seaboard helped sweep the moisture into the PAH
forecast area. In the unstable, uncapped atmosphere, a broken
band of showers and tstms that developed over the Pennyrile region
of KY and southwestern IN was moving generally to the west,
feeding on the outflow boundaries of previous convection. Weak
winds aloft should limit storm strength in general, though there
could be a stronger storm or two that could have brief gusty
winds, heavy rain, and small hail. Best guess is that this
diurnally-driven activity will mostly fade away by 01Z and
definitely by 03Z, a trend generally depicted by the CAMS and not
necessarily the synoptic models or the National Blend of Models.
This should hold out for the duration of tonight for the most
part.

Wed is expected to be a different story. Tropical moisture
will still be in place across the region while mid level shortwave
energy descending through the upper Midwest begins to impinge on
the ridge. The height falls should result in a ramp-up of PoPs
for shower and tstm activity, especially by afternoon. Peak
afternoon temps should be a few degrees lower than today. As the
shortwave axis continues to approach Wed night, convective
activity is expected to remain elevated, mainly after midnight. On
Thu, the shortwave axis will be in the region, along with a
surface front, ensuring a drippy day with scattered to even
numerous tstms, and highs only around 80 with all the clouds and
pcpn. The surface wind shift to the northwest should complete Thu
night, allowing a diminishing chance of rain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Finally seeing model consensus on the Friday through Monday time
frame. However, the stubborn GFS still tries to bring some energy
south into the area for Sunday. But given its recent propensity to
try and bring waves of rain through the area over the weekend, we
will continue to go with the better consistency of the other
guidance.

A closed low will be situated over the eastern Lakes or
Ontario/Quebec area by 12Z Friday, with the main upper level trough
down across IN/OH and into our area. The vast majority of the
moisture will be shunted to our south by this time as well. While
there may be a lingering shower across parts of far southeast MO and
southern parts of west Kentucky, it should be dry for Friday. Weak
high pressure will be pressing south into the area during the day
and modest cold air advection will be taking place. Therefore, highs
on Friday should be in the lower to possibly mid 80s. In addition,
drier air will be filtering into the region, so dew points will be
dropping into the lower 60s by the end of the day.

Given the higher confidence in the synoptic pattern over the area,
will continue to advertise a dry holiday weekend. High temperatures
on Saturday will be similar to Friday and range from the lower 80s
as northerly surface winds continue. Some places could struggle to
even reach 80 degrees looking at the latest GFS/ECMWF ensemble data.
That drier air mass will become even drier as dew points drop into
the upper 50s...pretty rare for early July. Low temperatures Friday
night and Saturday night should drop down into the upper 50s or
lower 60s.

We will see temperatures warm up several degrees on Sunday as warm
air advection takes place as an upper level ridge begins to shift
eastward into our area. However, we will still be below normal with
highs in the mid 80s in most locations. Like Saturday, with surface
high pressure over the area, winds will be rather light on Sunday.

On Monday and Tuesday, the surface high will weaken and move
southeast, allowing for our winds to become southerly. Weak upper
level high pressure will be in place over our area which should
result in mainly dry weather although some of the ensemble data
suggests otherwise. It will be warmer with highs rising into the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees and humidity slowly increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Outside of an isolated to scattered shower or tstm, VFR conditions
are expected over the next 24 hours. Diurnal cumulus development
will continue today and Wed, though clouds will have somewhat better
coverage in the eastern half of the region by Wed morning. Winds
outside of tstms will continue to be light, with a general
southwesterly direction in the daylight hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
353 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
353 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, especially in
the heat of the afternoon and early evening. Lightning and brief
heavy downpours are the primary concerns.

Heat index values this afternoon will peak around 100 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The chance of thunderstorms will increase Wednesday and peak
Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Small chances linger
into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

RJP/ML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

KYZ012-017-291945-
Christian KY-Trigg KY-
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
between Fort Campbell, Lafayette and Herndon, moving west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
thess storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Campbell, Lafayette and Herndon.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3667 8791 3686 8790 3681 8749
      3675 8735 3665 8733 3663 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 091DEG 11KT 3669 8760

Shanklin

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