Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

As surface low pressure slowly makes its way through the region
today and tonight, showers will be most common east of the MS
River, and tstm activity will be most common south of the OH
River. We will continue to watch for an isolated strong storm or
two in the heating of the day, though mid level instability is
limited. Meanwhile, surface winds will tend to gradually gain a
more westerly component through tonight as they should remain
rather light. There may be a resurgence of mostly shower activity
late tonight over parts of the region as a mid level trof
approaches. Some late night fog is possible in the light wind
regime.

Thu will be a little warmer than today, with decreasing
cloudiness from the west. The mid level trof axis will be over our
region by afternoon, thus winds aloft will be weaker than today.
Severe weather is not anticipated, but just enough instability
should enable showers and tstms to bubble up again for a few
hours in the afternoon, mainly east of the MS River, as the
parent system steadily moves away/damps out. Mostly clear skies
and light winds will be conducive to late night fog, some possibly
dense.

Increasingly anti-cyclonic mid level flow and increasing surface
pressure is expected to provide mostly clear and dry conditions
Fri and Fri night. Though highs Fri will be in the lower to middle
80s, dewpoints will remain in the 60s, which will greatly limit
any heat index effects.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

At the start of weekend, surface high pressure will be centered over
the Appalachians. Our area will be on the backside of this high with
southerly flow becoming firmly established. This increase in
southerly flow will result in our highs jumping into the upper 80s
for much of the area over the weekend. Deeper moisture will be
trying to advect northward on Saturday as large upper level low
churns over Texas, with the bulk of the moisture arriving across
parts of southeast Missouri during the day. A few isolated showers
or storms could result with the heat of the day. Otherwise, dry
weather should be commonplace on Saturday across the rest of the area.

On Sunday, we will see moisture increasing over the entire area
through the day and then into the night time hours, as the
aforementioned upper low finally starts moving northeastward. Models
and ensemble data suggest the best locations for higher chances of
precipitation will be across southeast Missouri, far southern
Illinois and far west Kentucky for Sunday into Sunday night.
However, small rain chances will exist for just about the entire
area.

As we head into early next week, we will see a continued unsettled
weather pattern as this upper level system meanders in our vicinity.
There are many possible solutions on how this upper system may
evolve with time, but the end result looks to be about the same,
which is daily shower and thunderstorm chances from Monday through
Wednesday. High temperatures during this period should remain in the
lower to mid 80s but dew points will be steadily increasing and end
up in the lower to middle 60s. Therefore, it should be feeling more
humid as we head into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

Showers and some tstm activity will continue this afternoon and
early evening, mainly south of the OH River. IFR cigs will
improve to MVFR in many areas by late afternoon, especially south
of the OH River, but may drop back to IFR or even lower levels
late tonight as some activity possibly regenerates late in the
night. At this time, did not include TS in the KEVV/KOWB TAFs past
06Z, though it might occur. Early on, winds will be mostly
southerly over the Pennyrile region of KY, and more northerly over
southeastern MO/southern IL, and more variable in direction
elsewhere. Late in the TAF period, winds should be less than 10
knots with a more westerly component, with scattered shower and
tstm development still possible Thu.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DB

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