Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
353 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

No plans to change anything with ongoing flash flood watch for
areas along/north of the OH River. looks like set up remains for
training cells tonight into tomorrow as a sfc low lifts ne from
OK into south central IL ahead of an advancing upper level trof
swing ese through the Plains. NAFES/ECMFW ENS PWATs are expected
to remain over 2SD above seasonal norms...in the 1.5 to 1.75 range
tonight into tomorrow along and ahead of ahead the surface
boundary.

The fly in the ointment could relate to the current thunderstorm
complex and associated MCV that is now approaching the MS River in
about the srn 1/3 of the forecast area. I suppose it is possible
this system (a bit stronger than earlier anticipated) could sweep
across the srn portions of the region and the resulting cold pool
and possibly wake sfc high could act to suppress widespread
additional convection, at least well into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

In the wake of the departing heavy rain event, expect a couple days
of dry weather Friday into Saturday night. Noticeably lower dew
points and cooler overnight lows will arrive Thursday night and
continue into Saturday. Another period of wet weather will arrive
Sunday and continue until a cold front passes through during the
middle of next week.

As far as the primary synoptic features of interest, a weak 500 mb
shortwave ridge will pass overhead on Saturday, bringing dry
weather. 500 mb troughing over the Southwest late in the weekend
will turn our flow southwesterly, heralding the return of higher
precip water values. A prolonged period of deep southwest flow is
expected Sunday into Tuesday, with the accompanying moisture return.
The models have trended upward on forecast qpf, however there are
lots of details to be resolved. The 500 mb shortwave deamplifies as
it moves toward the Mississippi Valley, and the accompanying surface
front loses momentum. Even so, heavy rain potential exists given
that we are entering MCS season. As we progress through the spring,
dynamic forcing will become less of a factor as instability
strengthens seasonally.

If the ensemble mean frontal timing holds up, Wednesday will be
mainly dry with decreasing dew points. Temps will tick downward,
with highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Areas of mvfr cigs continue to float around the region as of 17z,
with a more significant area of lower cigs and vsbys in
thunderstorms over south central Missouri. The main attention will
be on the thunderstorm potential this afternoon, which will increase
as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Amendments will be
issued as needed if ifr conditions or gusty winds become likely in
storms.

Widespread showers are expected tonight, along with isolated
thunder. The vsbys and cigs will be variable as pockets of heavy
rain transit the region. The tafs have mvfr conditions, which will
be an average. IFR cigs will become more likely Thursday morning as
the cold front moves into se Missouri and srn Illinois.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ003>005-007-
     010-014-015-018>020.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
403 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-292115-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
403 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected. There is the
potential for multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall,
especially along and north and west of the Ohio River, where a
flash flood watch remains in effect.

A few of the storms could be strong early this evening, mainly
across portions of western Kentucky. Strong, gusty winds and hail
would be the main thunderstorm hazards, along with torrential
downpours and deadly lightning. A brief tornado spin up cannot be
completely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring the potential
for moderate to heavy rainfall during the day on Thursday. A
flash flood watch remains in effect through early Thursday
evening.

After a lull in thunderstorm activity on Friday into the weekend,
the chance for thunderstorms returns early next week. The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.