Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Paducah, KY

114 
WWUS53 KPAH 110306
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
906 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

MOC023-110315-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-211211T0345Z/
Butler MO-
906 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for western
Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3644 8996 3663 8996 3682 8997 3700 8951
      3658 8951 3658 8955 3656 8957 3650 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 240DEG 58KT 3682 8988 3662 8988 

$$

MOC143-201-207-110345-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-211211T0345Z/
Scott MO-New Madrid MO-Stoddard MO-
906 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT...NEW MADRID AND SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD
COUNTIES...

At 905 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Essex to near Parma, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Sikeston, Morehouse, Miner, Matthews and Canalou.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 in Missouri near Mile Marker 1.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 39 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for western
Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8996 3663 8996 3682 8997 3700 8951
      3658 8951 3658 8955 3656 8957 3650 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 240DEG 58KT 3682 8988 3662 8988 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RJP

782 
WWUS53 KPAH 110324
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
924 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

MOC207-110334-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-211211T0345Z/
Stoddard MO-
924 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for western
Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3663 8970 3693 8969 3696 8951 3688 8951
      3687 8952 3685 8952 3685 8951 3658 8951
      3658 8955 3656 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 248DEG 52KT 3691 8951 3671 8962 

$$

MOC143-201-110345-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-211211T0345Z/
Scott MO-New Madrid MO-
924 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MADRID COUNTIES...

At 924 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Miner to near Matthews, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sikeston, New Madrid, Lilbourn, Miner, Hunter-Dawson State Historic
Site, Morehouse, Matthews, Canalou and North Lilbourn.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 in Missouri near Mile Marker 1.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 45 and 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for western
Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8970 3693 8969 3696 8951 3688 8951
      3687 8952 3685 8952 3685 8951 3658 8951
      3658 8955 3656 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 248DEG 52KT 3691 8951 3671 8962 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Shortwave energy out over the south central Plains will continue
ENE toward the area through sunset, and provide the initial focus
for scattered convection, especially from 4 or 5 pm to 7 p.m. The
short range hi-res guidance continues to be more and more bullish
on scattered severe storms, likely Supercells in some cases.
Looking at what the models are depicting, this event seems to
compare favorably to 2/28/17 and 11/17/13 (Perryville, Crossville
and Brookport). So the concern for significant severe including
strong tornadoes is elevated. The shear and instability are more
than adequate, and in some of the data, slightly stronger.
Anomalously high dew point air is over the area, serving to lower
LCL's coupled with increasing SRH and MLCAPE values over the next
several hours.

The activity will continue tonight, coming in a couple of rounds.
Scattered activity initially into the evening hours, that may be
followed by slightly more organization in a linear fashion toward
midnight and beyond (especially west KY). Outside of the
convection, we may see near Wind Advisory level winds at times,
SSW gusts 30 to 40 mph tonight. Will hold for now on a headline
given it's borderline and with all that's going on.

Precip will be mostly over by Saturday, with decreasing cloud
cover, and steady or falling temperatures (back into the 40s) in
the wake of a strong cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

A large 500 mb ridge will encompass much of the central and eastern
US early next week. Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday,
with a slow warming trend. Highs will rise from around 50 on Sunday
to around 70 on Wednesday. The records for Wednesday may be
threatened, depending on how much if any sunshine occurs. The ecmwf
ensemble situational awareness table shows the ensemble mean max
temps for Wed are in the 99th percentile of the 20-year model
climate. The following are the records for Wed...

Record Highs for Wednesday:
PAH.. 71 (1984)
EVV.. 70 (1933)
CGI.. 69 (1984)
POF.. 73 (1933)
MDH.. 74 (1933)

Beyond Wednesday, a cold front will sag southeast across our region
as a 500 mb shortwave rides over the northern part of the ridge.
This cold front will be accompanied by a chance of showers. Some
thunder cannot be ruled out, but the system track will be far to our
north across Minnesota. 500 mb heights will remain anomalously high
even during and after the passage of the shortwave. The weakening
cold front will be weakening and slowing down, possibly stalling
just to our south Friday. There is really not a strong model signal
for significant rainfall, given the persistence of the sub-tropical
ridge over the southern half of the US.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
northeastward this evening, especially across areas east of the MS
River. Some storms will likely be severe with damaging wind, hail,
and tornadoes a concern. The activity is expected to make better
progress east overnight just ahead of a cold front, which will be
moving through the region by around daybreak. Outside of the storms,
gusty south/southwest winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 knots or
more will be common tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Long Term...MY
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-120045-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
636 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...Organized Outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes
Tonight...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tornado Watches are in effect for western Kentucky, southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana. Thunderstorms
are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through this
evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and tornadoes,
including the potential for a couple of strong, destructive
tornadoes.

Numerous storms will continue through the overnight hours across
southwest Indiana and the rest of western Kentucky. Conditions will
be favorable for damaging winds and tornadoes along a broken line of
storms, and a couple long-track tornadoes are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, strong gradient non-thunderstorm wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible into early Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

MY/CN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
733 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

KYZ001-002-006-008-009-110315-
Fulton-Hickman-Graves-Marshall-Calloway-
Including the cities of Hickman, Clinton, Mayfield, Benton,
and Murray
733 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

Around 730 PM, a storm producing a tornado was moving into the
Missouri Bootheel region. If it continues its current track, it
will reach portions of Fulton, Hickman, and Graves counties in
west Kentucky, with the time frame of concern from 845 PM to 930
PM.

This storm will likely maintain its intensity, and could very well
continue to produce a tornado. So now is the time to prepare and
be ready to take shelter should a warning be issued.

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
841 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TORNADO          2 WSW CENTRAL CITY      37.29N 87.16W
12/10/2021                   MUHLENBERG         KY   STORM CHASER

            POWER FLASHES JUST NORTH OF THE WEST
            KENTUCKY PARKWAY JUST WEST OF CENTRAL CITY.
            POWER IS OUT.

&&

DWS