River Flood Warning 51, NWS Paducah, KY

733 
WGUS83 KPAH 280138
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
838 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau and Thebes.

For the Mississippi River...including Cape Girardeau...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-290345-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0050.210629T0045Z-210702T2145Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0045Z.210701T0000Z.210702T1545Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* From Monday evening to Friday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 26.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow evening to a crest of 34.5 feet Wednesday evening. It 
  will then fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, The flood gate on Themis Street closes. 


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3722 8959 3732 8963

$$

ILC003-MOC201-290345-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0051.210701T0600Z-210701T1200Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.210701T0600Z.210701T0600Z.210701T0600Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* From late Wednesday night to Thursday morning.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 24.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.0 feet 
  early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, The town of Gale begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3722 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

08

234 
WGUS83 KPAH 281551
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1051 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau affecting Perry, Jackson, 
  Cape Girardeau, Union, Scott and Alexander Counties.

  Mississippi River at Thebes affecting Scott and Alexander 
  Counties.

.Excessive rainfall fell last week across the Missouri River Basin 
and along stretches of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Basin. 
This is expected to cause minor flooding at Cape Girardeau and 
Thebes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-291800-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0050.210629T0045Z-210703T1942Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0045Z.210701T0000Z.210703T1342Z.NO/
1051 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* From this evening to Saturday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 30.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening to a crest of 35.0 feet Wednesday evening. It will then 
  fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs.  The Mississippi 
  River backs into several creeks producing flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3722 8959 3732 8963

$$

ILC003-MOC201-291800-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0051.210630T0900Z-210702T1800Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.210630T0900Z.210701T1200Z.210702T1200Z.NO/
1051 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* From late Tuesday night to Friday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning to a crest of 33.5 feet Thursday morning. It 
  will then fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, The town of Gale begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3722 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

16

826 
WGUS83 KPAH 290107
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
807 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau and Thebes.

.Excessive rainfall fell last week across the Missouri River Basin 
and along stretches of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Basin. 
This is expected to cause minor flooding at Cape Girardeau and 
Thebes this week.

For the Mississippi River...including Cape Girardeau and Thebes...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-300315-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-210703T1942Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0116Z.210701T0000Z.210703T1342Z.NO/
807 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 32.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 35.0 feet 
  Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 36.0 feet, The flood gate on Themis Street closes. 


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3722 8959 3732 8963

$$

ILC003-MOC201-300315-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0051.210630T0900Z-210702T1800Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.210630T0900Z.210701T1200Z.210702T1200Z.NO/
807 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* From late Tuesday night to Friday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 30.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning to a crest of 33.5 feet Thursday morning. It 
  will then fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, The town of Gale begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3722 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

AL

445 
WGUS83 KPAH 291523
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1023 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau affecting Perry, Jackson, 
  Cape Girardeau, Union, Scott and Alexander Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Thebes affecting Scott and Alexander 
  Counties.

.Excessive rainfall fell last week across the Missouri River Basin 
and along stretches of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Basin. 
This is expected to cause minor flooding at Cape Girardeau and 
Thebes this week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-301730-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-210704T0000Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0120Z.210701T0000Z.210703T1800Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Saturday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 33.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 35.0 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs.  The Mississippi 
  River backs into several creeks producing flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3723 8959 3732 8963

$$

ILC003-MOC201-301730-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0051.210630T1400Z-210702T1500Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.210630T1400Z.210701T1200Z.210702T0900Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* From Wednesday morning to late Friday morning.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 31.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tomorrow morning to a crest of 33.5 feet Thursday morning. It will 
  then fall below flood stage early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, The town of Gale begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3723 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

16

924 
WGUS83 KPAH 301524
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1024 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Thebes.

.Excessive rainfall fell last week across the Missouri River Basin 
and along stretches of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Basin. 
This is expected to cause minor flooding at Cape Girardeau and 
Thebes this week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-MOC201-011730-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210702T1200Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.210702T0000Z.210702T0000Z.210702T0600Z.NO/
1024 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 32.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to briefly rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow evening to a crest of 33.0 feet tomorrow evening. It will 
  then fall below flood stage early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 33.0 feet, The town of Gale begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3723 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-011730-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-210705T0000Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0120Z.210701T1200Z.210704T1800Z.NO/
1024 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Sunday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until Sunday evening.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 34.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.5 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Sunday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs.  The Mississippi 
  River backs into several creeks producing flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3723 8959 3732 8963

$$

DRS

275 
WGUS83 KPAH 011631
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Thebes.

.The flood wave from last week's heavy rain continues to work 
southward along the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River at Cape 
Girardeau is currently cresting and will fall below flood stage on 
July 5th. It appears that Thebes will crest slightly below flood 
stage today, then slowly fall through the holiday weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

&&


ILC003-MOC201-011745-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210701T1631Z/
/THBI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Mississippi River at Thebes has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mississippi River at Thebes.
* At 10:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 32.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting at 32.6 feet today and will 
  slowly fall through the holiday weekend.


&&

LAT...LON 3723 8959 3725 8941 3713 8929 3709 8946

$$

ILC003-077-181-MOC031-157-201-021845-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-210706T0824Z/
/CPGM7.1.ER.210629T0120Z.210701T0630Z.210706T0224Z.NO/
1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until early Tuesday morning.
* At 10:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 34.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is cresting at this time and is expected to 
  fall below flood stage by early Tuesday morning and continue 
  falling to 21.2 feet Sunday, July 11.


&&

LAT...LON 3769 8959 3769 8935 3744 8934 3725 8941
      3723 8959 3732 8963

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

An area of showers has developed near KCGI early this morning.
After looking 06Z NAM and GFS soundings there does not seem to be
a capping inversion this morning, so some lightning cannot be
ruled out. Will be updating the forecast shortly to insert some
early thunder chances this morning.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The last of the shower activity is in the process of lifting by
KMVN as of 08Z, and farther west across Missouri the scattered
convection is developing farther north, so we should remain dry
through most of the morning.

Today looks like a pure diurnal play with scattered showers and
storms along the northwest periphery of the region this afternoon
and isolated convection possible elsewhere. Guidance seems to
want to hold onto slightly better dewpoints this afternoon, so
that could be sufficient to get a few storms going. They will be
pulsy and likely short-lived with a very localized heavy rainfall
and lightning threat.

There is a consensus amongst the 00Z guidance that most of the
energy within the Plains upper trough will lift northeast into
Canada through Monday. This will allow the upper ridge to build
westward over our region Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, this
will lead to a more poorly defined surface front that will remain
to our north/northwest through the period. By Tuesday night the
ridge may be suppressed enough by troughing over the Great Lakes
to support some convection along I-64. Otherwise, we will be
looking at isolated to scattered diurnal convection Monday and
Tuesday. Given the building ridge and no surface boundary, hedging
toward isolated coverage seems like the better play.

Temperatures will continue to run near or slightly above normal
with most places reaching right near 90 for highs through Tuesday.
With dewpoints not pooling significantly across the region heat
indices should generally stay below 100. We will maintain a south
wind today, but not nearly to yesterday's levels, and as the
surface boundary weakens, so will the pressure gradient. That
should lead to better radiational cooling tonight through Tuesday
night, so look for lows more into the lower 70s than the mid to
upper 70s we have seen the last few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The main focus in the long term remains the daily chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Forecast confidence starts off perhaps slightly
better than average, but trends lower through the period with more
model uncertainty.

The pattern currently in place, with active convection around the
northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge over the southeastern
U.S., will begin to break down by mid week as an upper low/trough
over southeastern Canada pivots south into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes and towards the forecast area. So while shower and storm
coverage will largely be scattered on Wednesday, the added upper
support and an approaching frontal boundary will provide the lift
necessary for better coverage from Wednesday night into Friday.
Although an isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out, mainly
during the afternoon and evening when instability is maximized, the
main concern appears to be with pockets of heavy rain and localized
flooding.

There's still a decent signal that rain chances may taper off next
weekend as the upper low/trough pivot east of the area and the
potential passage of a cold front brings drier air into the region.
However, some model solutions still hang the front up over the area
and keep the upper low/trough parked to our north and west. Thus we
maintain the trend of reduced rain chances heading into next weekend
until more clarity emerges.

Temperatures should start off the period near normal with highs in
the upper 80s and lows near 70 Wednesday and Wednesday night. With
more cloud cover expected, temperatures are forecast to cool by late
week, with highs in the lower 80s and lows dropping back into the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Just amended KCGI to add VCTS and a prevailing SHRA for an hour or
so straddling 12Z as a cluster of hefty showers has developed
just upstream. Looking at guidance soundings, deep convection
cannot be ruled out this morning so we may have more thunder
around today than previously expected. Will keep a VCTS for much
of the morning and then again later this afternoon at KCGI, and
just this afternoon at KMVN. Elsewhere, TSRA chances are too low
to mention at this time. South winds will gust 15-20kts for much
of the day over most of the region, and then will become light
tonight. Some lower MVFR ceilings will also be possible through
the middle of the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
325 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the region this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a daily chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
focused during the heat of the day, with better coverage expected
Wednesday through Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will
be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS/RJP