Lake Wind Advisory 8, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
343 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Although the season is coming to a close soon, decided to issue a
Lake Wind Advisory across the entire WFO PAH forecast area from 10
am to 5 pm today. Had preferred to leave this Advisory out of the
forecast area east of Interstate 24 and 57 due rain chances and
more persistent cloud cover, but given the uncertainty of boaters
preferences, decided to keep across the entire forecast area.

At the beginning of the short term forecast period, the
westwardly tilted closed low will stretch from central Illinois
(at 500 mb) to just east of Cincinnati, Ohio at the surface, with
the greatest vorticity advection covering the eastern edge of the
WFO PAH forecast area. This forcing will continue to the
northeast during the day today, with the sharpest lapse rates
focused over parts of southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and
mainly the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.

The NBM thunderstorm probabilities suggest small chances for
thunderstorms over southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana and the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky, especially during from midday
to mid-afternoon. Given the prevalence of moist adiabatic lapse
rates and the potential for further cooling, I would not be
surprised if a selected thunderstorm with favorable updrafts
generates an isolated report of very small hail over the
aformentioned area today. At this time, confidence is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

With the departing of the low from the area this evening, rain
chances and instability should exit parts of southwest Indiana by
mid-evening tonight.

Decent surface cold air advection should bring the lowest
temperatures to the region on Thursday morning, then again Friday
morning due in part to lingering cold air advection and nocturnal
radiation loss.

The next system to impact the area will be a closed low working
down from south central Canada today, impacting the WFO PAH
forecast area Friday night. Most of the medium range numerical
model guidance has been consistent in bringing a small chance of
rain to the Interstate 64 corridor after midnight Friday night,
exiting before daybreak on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Building High Pressure should be the dominant theme for the
extended period as a western U.S. ridge slowly builds into the
central U.S.

From Saturday through next Tuesday, temperatures will gradually
rise 1 to 3 degrees a day during the period, as weak warm air
advection (southwesterly winds) build across the region in a
stable boundary layer environment.

Relative humidity values will be the lowest during the day over
southeast Missouri from today onward through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

In the wake of a strong cold front, drier air has already begun to
move into se Missouri and sw Illinois. VFR conditions will continue
at kcgi and kmvn through the upcoming taf period.

The drier air will be very slow to move east, however. As a 500 mb
low develops over Indiana, rain and ifr cigs will continue in sw
Indiana and nw Kentucky. IFR conditions will continue at kevv/kowb
through late Wednesday morning, then there should be an improvement
to mvfr in the afternoon and vfr Wed evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this
     afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this
     afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this
     afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this
     afternoon for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will produce some
locally heavy rainfall tonight. Some minor flood problems could
develop, especially over the Evansville Tri State.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms will be possible around midday Wednesday over
the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky into Spencer county Indiana.
A brief heavy downpour and lightning will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS