Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

Updated the aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

A 500 mb high pressure system over the Appalachians early today will
strengthen and expand westward today and be centered over
southeastern Indiana, central and eastern Kentucky and into Ohio by
Friday morning. As this occurs, we will see a warming trend and see
rain chances come to an end, along with a decrease in overall
cloudiness.

For today, the corridor of deep moisture will be streaming
northward in association with the very deep southerly flow on the
western edge of the aforementioned upper high. It is possible some
stray showers may invade parts of southeast Missouri, with the
higher chances in the Ozark Foothills region. Maintained low end
PoPs due to coverage and confidence levels. Lots of low level
moisture around so expecting quite a bit of cumulus development
but still should see a good deal of sunshine, which will help
boost temperatures into the lower 80s today. More cloud cover
expected in our western counties.

Some pretty stout winds just off the deck (~925mb) of 25 to 35 kts
which could get mixed down sometime this morning. However, the trend
should be for these higher sustained winds to decrease through the
day as high moves westward, although gusts to around 20 mph could
still occur during the afternoon. Considered a lake wind advisory
for this morning, but confidence is low on just how long the area
will be impacted by sustained 15 mph winds. May just highlight
breezy conditions this morning in other products.

As we head into tonight, while there may be a few isolated showers
lingering in parts of southeast Missouri in the evening, by and
large the trend will be a drying one. In fact, during the day on
Friday, we should see moisture lifting northwest and out of the
region as the upper level high retrogrades even further west into
the CWA. By Saturday, the center of this upper high will be situated
directly over the region, resulting in continued dry weather and
warmer temperatures.

This feature will not stick around long though as it will continue
to migrate southwestward into Arkansas/northern Mississippi Saturday
night into Sunday. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be warm and
range from the mid to upper 80s. However, due to the source region
of the expected south to southeasterly surface flow not being overly
humid, dew points will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which
means this warmer weather will not be accompanied by oppressive
humid, at least not yet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

No significant weather concerns are found in the long term portion
of the forecast. Confidence is higher than average with good overall
synoptic scale model agreement.

The first half of next week will start off dry with a ridge of high
pressure positioned from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the
Southeast. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift to the
southeast through the first half of next week. This will eventually
allow for an increase in Gulf moisture rotating northward around the
western periphery of the ridge. That in combination with the
approach of a weak frontal boundary from the northwest will result
in the return chance of showers and some thunderstorms from Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday, when chances will be higher in northern
and western portions of the area.

Temperatures through the period are forecast to be unseasonably
warm, especially during the first couple days of next week. Highs
are forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees Sunday through
Tuesday, perhaps cooling a couple degrees by Wednesday. Lows should
gradually trend from the middle to upper 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

The TAFs are VFR with southeast winds. The winds will veer to
nearly due south with mixing in the morning and increase to
12-15kts sustained with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
Gusts will disappear shortly after 00Z-01Z but remain at around
5-7 kts out of the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
348 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
348 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance of thunderstorms returns to all or part of the area
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. The probability of widespread
hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.