Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

Starting to get a few healthy showers going along the cold front
over the Pennyrile from Providence toward Calhoun. The latest
HRRR is not indicating anything terribly robust, but does have
some scattered cells along and ahead of the front through 01Z when
it should be through the entire region. Individual cells should
move east and it may be a struggle to get lightning, let alone
severe. We will keep an eye on it.

More widespread showers and possibly a few brief storms are
expected to spread east across the region as the upper trough
moves through this evening. Most of this activity should be done
by 06Z.

Wednesday will be dry, but the models continue to bring a swath of
QPF southeast through the region with another upper impulse
Thursday afternoon. The instability signal seems to be increasing,
so we will maintain the small chances of thunderstorms as well.
This activity should be east of the region by or shortly after 00Z
Friday, and Thursday night should be dry throughout the region.

Once the cold front passes this afternoon/evening, temperatures
will be below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

A full latitude trough will be centered to our east Friday, but an
impulse diving down its backside could bring a few showers through
the EVV Tri State through the day. It would be very scant QPF, and
the NBM has not caught on to it, but it does show up in the 12Z
GFS and ECMWF, so we will need to keep an eye on this possibility.

Warm advection showers will begin to lift north across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late Friday night and then blossom
over northern and western portions of the area Saturday. There is
no consensus on whether it will push north of the area Saturday
night allowing us to dry out a bit, but we will keep PoPs through
the period. West Kentucky will definitely be the driest Saturday
and Saturday night.

The models begin to diverge Sunday into next week, but there is a
decent signal that an upper-level disturbance will push eastward
across the region Sunday into Sunday night. How strong it will be
and how effective it will be in drying us out is in question. We
will have healthy PoPs Sunday and Sunday night, but will also keep
chance PoPs going Monday and Tuesday just in case the front stalls
out not far south of the region, as in the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

MVFR ceilings are commonplace across most of the terminals at the
time of this writing. Scattered showers will continue this evening
as a cold front progresses southeast. Thunderstorms should be
isolated and are not included in the forecast. The showers will
end from west to east through the late evening and overnight
hours. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys may develop in the heavier showers.
MVFR cigs may linger after the rain for a bit, but satellite
shows this band of clouds making good eastward progression, so
will continue with optimistic clearing btwn 08-10Z. Lingering low
level moisture may result in the development of a sct to possibly
MVFR deck in the morning or afternoon. North winds will be
strongest this evening at KCGI and KPAH where a few gusts over
20kts will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
400 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
400 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible through early evening over west
Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to some additional
flooding concerns where heavy rain fell overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible across the region Thursday
afternoon. Severe storms are not expected.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday through
Sunday night will bring a chance of heavy rainfall to the region.
Severe storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 AM     TORNADO          4 NW OAKTON             36.71N 89.11W
05/04/2021                   HICKMAN            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS OF
            105 MPH STRUCK HICKMAN COUNTY, KY, EARLY
            TUESDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE TREES WERE
            SNAPPED. MANY TREE BRANCHES AND SOME ENTIRE
            TREE FELL ONTO SEVERAL HOMES, WHICH
            INFLICTED DAMAGE. THE TORNADO BEGAN AT 3:29
            AM 7 MILES WEST OF CLINTON, KY, AND ENDED AT
            3:38 AM JUST NORTHEAST OF CLINTON, KY.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
834 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
05/04/2021                   CHRISTIAN          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE OF FLASH FLOODING AND STALLED CARS
            IN DOWNTOWN HOPKINSVILLE SHARED ON TWITTER.

&&

DWS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
901 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S PINHOOK            36.59N 89.24W
05/04/2021                   MISSISSIPPI        MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LATE REPORT. TWO FARM BUILDINGS DESTROYED,
            TREES DOWN, AND A PIVOT FLIPPED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW SHARON GROVE      36.90N 87.15W
05/04/2021                   TODD               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WATER OVER MANY STATE
            AND COUNTY ROADS, INCLUDING HIGHLAND LICK,
            MT. SHARON, COLLIER SPRINGS, LIBERTY, WHITE
            AND OTHERS.

&&

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