Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Norman, OK

204 
WWUS44 KOUN 170819
WSWOUN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
319 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...Winter Weather Advisory Wednesday...

OKZ004-009-010-180000-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0004.210317T1200Z-210318T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.210317T1200Z-210318T0000Z/
Harper-Ellis-Woodward-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Laverne, Shattuck, Arnett, Gage,
Fargo, and Woodward
319 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  two inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Harper, Ellis and Woodward Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be very near freezing,
  and heavy precipitation is expected in the form of rain, snow,
  and rain mixed with snow. Accumulations much different from what
  is expected may occur as a result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7 for road information.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

An intense upper low center over southern CA this morning will move
eastward to eastern NM by mid-evening Tuesday. Strong height falls
and increasing winds aloft over western Oklahoma will be occuring at
the same time as lower layer moisture advection is increasing over
Oklahoma. A strong surface low will also develop underneath the
upper low over the TX panhandle by midnight. Given the magnitude of
the shear, instability, and favorable left-front quadrant of the
strong upper jet streak, strong and severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop over northwestern Oklahoma in the vicinity of
the surface low and warm front. Early Wednesday morning, storms will
form along the trough south and ahead of the surface low over
western Oklahoma. A large area of thunderstorms is expected to then
move east through central Oklahoma before daybreak Wednesday. Large
hail and wind are the main severe threats with this event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Wednesday, around sunrise, a surface low will be centered over
northern Oklahoma. A cold front will extend in a curve from the
low into eastern Oklahoma, then back southwest into northeast
Texas and on south to south Texas. A warm front will extend to the
east, and an occlusion/surface trough will extend to the west of
the low.

The low will continue its eastward motion during the day,
reaching southern Missouri by sunset. This motion will leave
Oklahoma and north Texas in the strong northwesterly flow behind
the departing low. Temperatures in the far northwest will be near
freezing, and there is a possibility that rain may mix with (or
even change to) snow before ending late Wednesday evening. There
is also a possibility that some snow from the Panhandles and
southwest Kansas might blow into northwest Oklahoma. At this
time, it appears that temperatures will be warm enough to preclude
any meaningful accumulations, but a relatively small downward
change in temperatures could change that. Our forecast already
attempts to account for the effects of the snow in the Panhandle
and western Kansas.

After the wraparound rain (and snow?) move off to the east early
Thursday morning, relatively quiet and cool weather will follow.

As another storm system approaches from the west, low-level
moisture return will bring more chances for rain, perhaps a few
thunderstorms, beginning Sunday night, and continuing through
Monday. At this point, it appears that the precipitation will be
mainly showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms...mainly
associated with warm/moist advection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

South wind will be gust today while a strong storm system
approaches from the west. This will bring numerous showers and
thunderstorms west to east across Oklahoma from mid-evening until
early Wednesday morning. South winds will remain gusty overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  49  61  37 /   0  70  20  20
Hobart OK         76  42  57  35 /   0  50  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  47  63  39 /   0  60   0   0
Gage OK           75  36  40  31 /   0  60  80  20
Ponca City OK     74  52  63  37 /   0  70  60  40
Durant OK         78  56  69  42 /   0  80  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
312 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-170815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
312 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Severe storms...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the
Panhandles, and then spread east into Oklahoma and western north
Texas this evening. The storms will advance east overnight into
central and eastern Oklahoma. Large hail will be the primary risk
with these storms, but damaging winds and tornadoes will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Wind...
Strong northwest winds will spread across the region on Wednesday,
with frequent gusts 30 to 50 mph, with the stronger winds across
the western parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Strong winds and dry air will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday, slightly mitigated by cool temperatures.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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