Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

An upper-level wave and surface frontal system will move east
across our forecast area this evening, bringing chances for
thunderstorms, some likely severe, and a breezy, cooler night.

Moderate instability and moderate vertical wind shear will
support strong to severe storms, with the usual wind/hail threats.
Hodographs are not overly impressive, but a few (relatively) weak
tornadoes will be possible this evening with any supercells that
develop, and with the QLCS that is expected to develop shortly
after sunset.

Once the cold front passes through, breezy north to northwest
winds will bring cooler weather, and an end to rain/storm chances.

CmS
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Dry northwest flow (aloft) will be the rule through Monday. A wave
in the flow may bring a few showers to north-central Oklahoma late
Thursday night/very early Friday, although any showers that occur
will be brief, and generally light.

The cooler weather will include low temperatures around freezing
Saturday morning. As the forecast stands right now, most of the
area that is expected to reach freezing has already had a freeze
this season. However, none have had a "hard" freeze, so
Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed once the area is
better-defined.

The remainder of the forecast period should feature mainly
clear/dry weather with a slow warming trend.

CmS
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Low-level moisture continues to stream north ahead of a storm
system approaching from the High Plains region. This is causing
low ceilings across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms (some probably severe) late this
afternoon into the late evening, mainly east of KEND-KSPS,
shifting east with time. As a cold front sweeps across the region
this evening, clearing will follow, along with gusty northwest to
north winds.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Upper air flights are planned for 21Z and 11/00Z..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  61  41  55 /  50   0  10   0
Hobart OK         41  64  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  66  42  62 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           37  61  34  55 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     40  60  39  52 /  40   0  20   0
Durant OK         47  66  42  62 /  80   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1216 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1216 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
mid to late afternoon, as a cold front moves rather quickly
across Oklahoma and northern Texas. Areas along and east of an
Enid to Lawton and Wichita Falls line have a better chance of
being impacted by severe storms. The stronger storms will
capable of producing hail to the size of golf balls, winds over
60 mph and brief but heavy rainfall. There is also a low tornado
risk, especially across south central and southeast Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations after 4 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Freezing Temperatures...
Freezing temperatures are possible for much of Oklahoma early
Saturday morning.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
349 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ013-102215-
Noble OK-
349 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Noble County
through 415 PM CST...

At 349 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Perry, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Red Rock, Marland, Sooner Lake and Ceres.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 186 and 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9702 3659 9699 3654 9694 3653 9696
      3653 9699 3651 9701 3651 9703 3641 9703
      3626 9736 3634 9744 3659 9719 3660 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 230DEG 29KT 3638 9731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bunker