Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Currently, there is a surface low centered over Harper County
with a dryline extending southwest to near Erick, with another
weak surface low near Childress. The previous quasi-stationary
front has since lifted northward into southern Kansas.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over west-central
Oklahoma late evening (around 04Z) as the cold front progresses
into northwest Oklahoma and as the low heads eastward from
Childress towards Vernon. With mostly elevated instability, large
hail up to the size of half dollars are the main threat. The 18Z
HRRR suggests weak surface instability on the order of 500 J/kg,
and marginal 0-1km shear of 15-20 kts. Therefore, confidence is
low on the tornado threat. Scattered storms will grow upscale into
a line along the front and progress across central Oklahoma
overnight (06-08Z). Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to flash
flooding, mainly across east-central Oklahoma.

Tomorrow, clouds are expected to diminish from west to east, with
gusty north winds and highs in the 60s for most areas.
Showers/storms are expected to exit by mid-morning.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

The mid-level trough axis and the cold front will be moving away
from the area by 00Z/16 and precipitation will be well east of the
area. And this is the beginning of a period of dry weather and
near or below normal temperatures for the next few days. Mid-level
ridging will move into and hang out over the area through the
weekend. The mid-level ridge will finally move to our east early
next week. A mid-level trough is expected to move from western
Oklahoma into the central/northern Plains, and the main forcing
with this currently looks to remain northwest of the area,
although there is some potential for shortwaves to move in from
the west or southwest that may give at least low precipitation
potential early/mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Strong and severe storms will affect mainly KOKC and KOUN first
hour or so of forecast. MVFR cigs and brief vis reductions with
storms. MVFR cigs will be seen behind frontal boundary across
northern and central Oklahoma this morning. Gusty northwest winds
will be seen through much of the day with decreasing winds.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  68  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  72  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     38  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         45  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
745 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-160045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
745 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
tonight across parts of Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this evening across portions of western
Oklahoma. These storms will then move east and northeast and are
expected to move through the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma
around midnight before moving into eastern Oklahoma during the
early morning hours. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing hail to the size of half dollars and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.No hazardous weather is expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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