Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
554 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Evolving MCV evident over northwest Texas with exiting area of
convection. This should have little or no impact on western north
Texas going into the short term period.

Cold front will be entering northwest portions of Oklahoma shortly,
with steady but relatively slow progress southward through tonight.
Deeper pre-frontal mixing as afternoon progresses will help erode
most of the cap that is in place across western/central/northern
Oklahoma, and with sufficient moisture return and convergence near
mentioned front, we should see scattered storm development late this
afternoon and early this evening from west-central Oklahoma east
northeast into portions of north-central and central Oklahoma. With
the deeply mixed environment yielding DCAPE values in excess of 1500
J/kg, damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather concern
with the strongest storms through at least early evening. After
sunset, ML CIN should quickly increase which will allow any
remaining storms to become more elevated in nature and is expected
to yield a decrease in coverage and intensity. However, with
increasing mid-upper level flow and weak upper trough moving into
northeast Oklahoma overnight, we could see some elevated storm
activity continuing into southeast portions of Oklahoma tomorrow
morning. If these storms can be maintained, they should stay sub
severe overnight.

Slightly cooler temperatures still look like a good bet for tomorrow
with dominant northeast to easterly low level flow. Most areas
should see highs at least 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those seen
today, with parts of north-central Oklahoma possibly see highs 15
degrees cooler than those see this afternoon (mid 80s as opposed to
100). Although less hot, Wednesdays highs will remain slightly above
average for a majority of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Dry forecast last half of the week into the weekend. Models show the
center of the upper high shifting into the southern Rockies region
by late this week. The high then becomes E-W oriented over the
southern U.S. over the weekend. Hot, above average, temperatures are
expected this week into the weekend, with triple digit highs
possible across portions of the fa Friday and Saturday. The humidity
is not expected to be as high as the last few weeks with lower
dewpoints over the area. So heat index values of 105+ are less
likely this go around. Some models show a shortwave moving across
the central U.S. early/middle next week which may bring a chance for
rain to parts of the fa but right now it looks like most areas will
remain dry into at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

A cold front located in northwest Oklahoma will continue to slide
south this evening. There will be a chance for a few thunderstorms
along and near this boundary tonight. They may impact sites across
northern and central sections of Oklahoma. Have maintained a
mention at OKC/OUN/SWO with a VCTS at PNC and CSM. Have also gone
ahead and put a TEMPO at CSM this evening. Winds will shift to the
north and northeast behind the front with a few gusts this evening
around 20kts, mainly at WWR. Mainly mid/high clouds otherwise
tonight with clear skies most locations tomorrow.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 0Z Wednesday (9/8) this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  88  64  92 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  91  63  95 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  92  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           61  87  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  86  60  92 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         68  90  63  92 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30

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