Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
253 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Deeper moisture along with some weak upper support has resulted
in a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
mainly southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Although there is a
weak MCV moving south across southern Kansas from earlier
convection that may aid in some isolated to widely scattered
convection across northern late this afternoon and possibly into
early evening hours.

With weak overall flow storms are slow moving and
propagating/developing on residual outflow boundaries. Main
impacts will be period of heavy rainfall and some potential for
strong winds. Expect most to dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating, could see some linger into the evening hours.

As we go through the day Monday we will see the approach of
another weak mid-level disturbance from the northwest. As this
occurs expect convective development to our north and west, which
will then move toward/into northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon
hours. With sufficient instability and temp/dewpoint spreads of
30 to 40 degrees, some damaging wind gusts appear possible with
the storms. Temperatures will remain below normal with most
locales near 90 for afternoon highs with light south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Overall, convective coverage will increase toward the middle and
latter part of the week as a moist and negligibly-capped
atmosphere interacts with synoptic to mesoscale features. Given
the aforementioned conditions, it will only take limited
ascent/forcing for deep, moist convection.

The probability for convection will begin to increase by late
Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave trough/PV anomaly lifts into
the Southern Plains. Even in the wake of this shortwave trough, a
subtle wave/ascent embedded in southwest flow will result in a
continued chance for convection into Thursday.

By late Friday into Saturday, a surface front is expected to move
into southern Kansas or perhaps northern Oklahoma as a shortwave
trough passes by the northern Plains. The potential for remnant
convection/an effective boundary associated with the cold front
will maintain the probability for convection.

Precipitable water values look quite high with values of 1.8" to
2.2" progged during the period. As a result, the primary hazard
from any thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall that may lead to
localized flooding. Intense cores may also result in downbursts as
storms collapse, which may cause gusty winds.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Expect ceilings to transition to VFR quickly this afternoon with
light east to southeast winds. Mainly mid/high clouds overnight
before we see lower clouds redevelop mid-morning Monday with
daytime heating. Winds should transition to more southerly
tomorrow with speeds remaining less than 10kts.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

No upper air flights are currently scheduled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  88  69  89 /  20  10   0  20
Hobart OK         67  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
Gage OK           67  90  67  90 /  10  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     67  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  20
Durant OK         69  91  71  93 /  30  30   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across mainly south
central and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. A
few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Strong
storms and locally heavy rain will be possible, but organized
severe weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
312 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

OKZ032-152045-
Hughes OK-
312 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Hughes
County through 345 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dustin, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dustin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9601 3512 9601 3512 9603 3511 9604
      3509 9611 3529 9616 3529 9598 3515 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 344DEG 5KT 3527 9606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JT