Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

At midday, visible satellite showed the greatest clustering of
midlevel clouds just west of the OKC metro, and this is where
initial convection is most numerous early this afternoon. This
convection should be transitioning to more surface-based as
boundary layer heating/destabilization increases. As of this
writing, intensity has been modest and cold pool production has
been limited at best. However, later this afternoon with greater
surface-based buoyancy, more intense cores and cold pools may
occur. Coverage should expand primarily along remnant outflow from
overnight convection and associated convergence, into southwest
Oklahoma. Motion will be primarily driven by propagation where
convergence is maximized along cold pool flanks, and so the slow
moving convection just west of OKC metro should build further east
with time.

Lightning will be the primary convective hazard today, but a few
strong to severe downbursts may occur later this afternoon when
convective intensity peaks. Hail can't be ruled out in the most
intense cells just because of the instability magnitude, but weak
shear precluding sustained updrafts will limit the hail threat.

Forecast uncertainty with convective timing and coverage lessens
tonight into tomorrow. In fact, these weakly forced patterns with
ongoing convection are some of the most difficult to forecast with
precision. CAMs usually can capture coverage well but can be
misleading with placement of convection and where it's most
concentrated. So, our approach is fairly broad with low-moderate
precipitation probabilities, and we intend to refine corridors of
higher chances through mesoanalysis. A band of mid-upper moisture
contributing to anomalous precipitable water values is often
associated with greater coverage of convection and rainfall
efficiency, even in weakly forced environments, and we will have
that later tonight into tomorrow. We did err toward higher
probabilities for during the afternoon when diurnal
destabilization occurs. It wouldn't be too surprising if coverage
decreased quite a bit tonight with loss of instability and weak
forcing (i.e., absence of low-level jet).

BRB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

It's a mess.

Sporadic, unorganized precipitation will continue Saturday night
through most of next week. Cooler temperatures in the midlevels with
uncapped temperature profiles should provide enough support for
showers and storms through varying portions of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. With a relatively weak upper air pattern, any
showers/storms that develop will be fairly disorganized. Most of
the focus will be on any boundaries that develop as the forcing
for storms to develop. The only exception is a small signal in the
ensembles of a low magnitude upper level trough that develops
Monday night into Tuesday, which may enhance the coverage and
organization of potential storms. Temperatures will remain below
normal over the weekend into early next week due to a combination
of rainfall and cloud cover.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop near and south
of the I-40 corridor thru this evening from CSM to LAW. Have
included TEMPO for TSRA there. Otherwise, only expect some showers
near OKC/OUN tonight. Mid to high clouds will slowly diminish
overnight and a wind shift from the northeast is expected into
Sat. A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Sat
afternoon and evening along this cold front.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

No upper air flights are currently scheduled. However,
one or more may be needed Friday and/or Saturday. Timing will
depend on position of mesoscale features and will be determined
later, if needed at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  85  70  86 /  30  50  20  30
Hobart OK         70  86  69  89 /  60  50  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  89  71  90 /  30  40  30  30
Gage OK           67  85  66  88 /  20  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     70  85  67  86 /  40  50  20  20
Durant OK         74  91  71  90 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through tonight. A few strong to perhaps severe storms
are possible, especially north of an Altus to Ada line and south
of a Stillwater to Cheyenne line. Damaging winds will be the main
threat, and hail will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be likely again on Saturday, but the chance for
severe storms will be lower. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible each day from Sunday through Thursday, mainly in the
afternoons and evenings.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
734 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OKZ022-023-035-140100-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Caddo OK-
734 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Washita, west central Caddo and northeastern Kiowa Counties through
800 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carnegie, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carnegie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9857 3502 9870 3521 9871 3512 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 196DEG 6KT 3506 9861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE CLINTON            35.54N 98.94W
08/13/2021  M63 MPH          CUSTER             OK   AWOS

&&

EM

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