Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Outflow from last nights convection across northern Kansas
currently becoming nearly stationary across far southern Kansas.
Primary cold front progd to move southward across Kansas this
afternoon and continue to move into northern Oklahoma early this
evening. While most organized area of convection is expected to be
where these boundaries meet over southern Kansas, pre-frontal and
highly elevated storms are developing from the Texas Panhandle
eastward into northern portions of Oklahoma in deeply mixed,
veered flow. While this initial storm activity may be more or less
scattered due to lack of strong forcing along mentioned
boundaries, increased storm coverage expected through the evening
as outflow will help enhance low level convergence. Moderate mixed
layer CAPE and deep layer shear progd to increase toward 20 KT
should allow a few organized and persistent storms this evening to
yield damaging wind gusts across northern portions of Oklahoma.
By the overnight hours, aided by anticipated cold pool
development, showers and storms should begin to spread southward
into southwest and central portions of Oklahoma, although less
organized. Highest chances for rain will be retained across
northern and western portions of Oklahoma through the night.

Remnant, elevated shower activity with a few embedded storms
possible through Sunday morning across southwest Oklahoma/western
north Texas up into central Oklahoma. As instability increases
through the afternoon and early evening across the Red River
Valley of southern Oklahoma/northern Texas, redevelopment of
organized strong storms appears likely. During this time,
precipitable water values progd to exceed 2 inches, and with slow
storm movement, high rain totals and damaging wind gusts will be
possible across far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas into
Sunday night.

Temperatures on Sunday, for at least the northern two-thirds of
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, will be 15 to 20
degrees cooler than those seen this afternoon. However, ahead of
the front across far southeast Oklahoma, hot and humid conditions
are expected Sunday afternoon, which will yield extension of the
heat advisory over that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

In the system's wake, northerly flow aloft is expected through
much of the week across the Southern Plains. North to northeast
surface winds will advect lower temperatures and dewpoints. As a
result, the weather will be noticeably more comfortable (at least
for early August standards) through mid week with lower humidity
and slightly below-average temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to increase toward the latter half of the
week as mid-level heights rise and a thermal ridge develops to
the west (the Southern Plains will be eastern periphery of the
thermal ridge).

The chance for convection appears quite low through much of the
extended period. While a subtle wave embedded in the
northerly/northwesterly flow could bring in remnant convection or
enhance the ascent, there is limited signal in the deterministic
guidance. The NBM 90th percentile QPF values are very low, which
indicates ensemble guidance is relatively dry as well.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

A cold front over northern Oklahoma will move south through the
area Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered near and
north of the front as it moves south through the forecast period.
There will be some MVFR and perhaps localized IFR conditions,
mainly associated with and near the showers and thunderstorms.
Drier air will spread from north to south through the day Sunday
with ceilings lifting and clouds clearing.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  86  67  87 /  40  40  10   0
Hobart OK         73  87  65  89 /  40  40  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  93  69  90 /  10  50  50  10
Gage OK           68  83  63  88 /  70  50  10   0
Ponca City OK     71  87  62  86 /  70  30   0   0
Durant OK         77  96  71  91 /   0  50  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ048-052.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1131 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heat...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon with heat
index values of 102 to 110 degrees.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return to the region this evening and
tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe storms across
northern Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday and Sunday night in
association with a cold front. Some storms may produce strong wind
gusts and heavy rain. Storms may linger around southern Oklahoma
and north Texas into Monday morning.

Low chances for scattered thunderstorms will return Wednesday and
Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
931 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ010-010300-
Woodward OK-
931 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Woodward County
Until 1000 PM CDT...

AT 929 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Alabaster Caverns State Park, moving northeast at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3673 9921 3661 9915 3657 9928 3661 9930
      3669 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 241DEG 6KT 3664 9925

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
946 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ008-010315-
Kay OK-
946 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Kay County Until
1015 PM CDT...

AT 944 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hardy, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3680 9675 3687 9694 3700 9690 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 283DEG 11KT 3693 9683

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
954 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ005-010330-
Woods OK-
954 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Woods County Until
1030 PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles northwest
of Freedom, moving east at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3700 9907 3691 9910 3688 9929 3700 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 263DEG 6KT 3694 9921

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1026 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ008-013-010400-
Kay OK-Noble OK-
1026 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Kay and north
central Noble Counties Until 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1025 PM CDT, A strong thunderstorm was reported 5 miles north of
Marland, moving southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3664 9705 3661 9705 3660 9704 3659 9706
      3659 9705 3653 9714 3663 9722 3670 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 321DEG 9KT 3664 9712

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ007-012-010400-
Garfield OK-Grant OK-
1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Garfield and south
central Grant Counties Until 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1028 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles west of Jefferson to near Kremlin, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3680 9773 3654 9772 3656 9791 3674 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 266DEG 12KT 3671 9786 3658 9786

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ007-012-010430-
Garfield OK-Grant OK-
1103 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Garfield and south
central Grant Counties Until 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1100 PM CDT, A strong thunderstorm was reported near Pond Creek,
moving east at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Pea-sized hail...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3657 9789 3668 9783 3667 9766 3655 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 292DEG 10KT 3665 9777

JT