Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

A NW to SE oriented stationary boundary is currently draped
across central OK this afternoon. This will be the location where
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through
this evening. The highest chances are expected over SE OK where
both surface observation and vis satellite suggest enhanced
convergence with cu fields developing. In addition to diurnal
convection along the boundary, an ongoing thunderstorm complex
moving out of west central KS should enter NW OK around 23-00Z. A
narrow environment of deep layer shear and instability should be
present across this area as it continues to track south
southeastward into west central OK after dark. Damaging wind
gusts could accompany these storms, along with marginally severe
hail until midnight or so. Late tonight, the surface front will
move southwestward as a quasi cold front. Stratus may redevelop by
early Mon morning behind it but confidence in how long it will
persist is low. Temps should be much more bearable behind it
regardless, and if stratus does linger by this time tomorrow it
could be similar to what NE OK is experiencing right now (upper
70s to low 80s). As far as PoPs are concerned for tomorrow, it
appears most of the region will be impacted by drier mid to upper
air/subsidence as a shortwave trough within northerly flow moves
into central AR by mid day. The exception will be over the
extreme west where a secondary perturbation within sfc upslope
flow could result in additional showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day but confidence is on the low side regarding
this scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

There is at least a chance that afternoon convection could still
affect the southwestern portion of the area Monday evening, but
the best signal is pushing west of the forecast area by the time
we get into the evening hours. Otherwise POPs will generally be
confined to low POPs in the southeast at various times closer to
the proximity of the broad mid-level through remaining just
southeast of the area. The large mid-level anticyclone over the
southwestern U.S. builds into the into the central and northern
Plains bringing warmer temperatures and helping to cut off any
significant chance of precipitation through most of the area
(except perhaps the southeast).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the evening over the
southwestern half of Oklahoma. IFR ceilings will likely develop
several hours before sunirse and last until late morning at many
TAF sites. Winds will remain under 12 knots, generally from
northeast to southeast.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  85  66  86 /  40  20   0   0
Hobart OK         71  87  65  87 /  50  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  89  68  89 /  50  30  10   0
Gage OK           69  84  63  86 /  50  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  86  64  85 /  20  20   0   0
Durant OK         74  88  68  89 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-192015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
307 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
northwestern Oklahoma. The slight risk is northwest of a line from
Arnett to Woodward to Alva. There is also a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms to the south and east of the slight risk and
northwest of a line from Hollis to Cordell to Watonga to Medford.

Showers and thunderstorms moving south through western Kansas will
move into northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening with
some additional thunderstorms developing over northwestern
Oklahoma. Some of these storms may be severe with wind gusts of 60
to 70 mph and hail to the size of quarters. The severe weather
potential will linger into the evening before diminishing around
midnight.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms will be scattered across southern and
western Oklahoma and western sections of north Texas through mid-
evening. Although some of these storms could be strong, the severe
weather potential is lower in these areas.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with any of the storms this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday with
localized flooding as the only hazard. Thunderstorms will return
on Thursday through Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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