Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
647 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

A few scattered showers continue over northern Oklahoma, extending
southwestward into parts of western Oklahoma as a mid level wave
treks eastward through Kansas. Destabilization driven by daytime
heating should allow for more robust convection to develop late this
afternoon into the evening (again centered under the trough axis
near north central Oklahoma).

Ample instability (1500-2500 J/kg) may result in some stronger
storms developing, but weak deep layer shear (<30kts) will hamper
organization. With high PWATs (1.7-2.0 in), heavy rain will be of
concern. A flood watch has been issued for north central Oklahoma
overnight.

Less critical, cloud cover over parts of northern and western
Oklahoma will mitigate afternoon temperatures somewhat, so lowered
temperatures across this area from NBM guidance by a few degrees.

Convection will weaken and become more scattered as it progresses
southeast overnight, exiting the area tomorrow morning. Tomorrow
appears fairly seasonable with clearing skies.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The only feature of significance in the long term is a shortwave
trough that travels south from the central Plains across Oklahoma
Sunday night through Monday. It will result in higher chances for
rain/thunderstorms during its passage, and may provide enough
support for stronger storms.

In addition to the rain/storm potential, the somewhat cooler air
mass behind the system will bring well below average temperatures
to Oklahoma and north Texas for at least the first half of next
week.

Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility
each day, and most nights, as a moist and minimally-capped
atmosphere remains in place across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered over northern Oklahoma
tonight while a weak front moves slowly south through this area.
Storms will become fewer as this boundary drifts toward central
Oklahoma. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected
except of part of Friday morning at PNC.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

An Upper Air flight is in progress for 00Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  91  73  92 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         72  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  76  94  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           67  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     71  92  71  91 /  70  20  20  30
Durant OK         74  91  73  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

OKZ004-009-010-160015-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Ellis OK-
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Woodward...
southeastern Harper and northern Ellis Counties Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 651 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Supply,
moving east at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3647 9967 3665 9970 3672 9944 3645 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 263DEG 6KT 3657 9964

Zwink

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OKZ033-034-036-160600-
Harmon OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Harmon...south central
Greer and west central Jackson Counties Until 100 AM CDT...

AT 1224 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hollis, moving
east at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3460 9993 3466 9999 3475 9999 3488 9969
      3464 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 253DEG 28KT 3469 9987

JP