Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1047 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Influence of upper trough moving across north-central and northeast
Texas will continue into this evening, mainly across southeast and
eastern Oklahoma in form of continued rain activity. Farther west
and north, overall coverage of rain expected to decrease late this
afternoon and evening. Most high resolution forecasts have
thunderstorms developing over the Texas Panhandle by this evening
and progressing to the south and east this evening and overnight.
This will allow thunderstorm chances to increase across far
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas late this evening and
overnight. Some threat for damaging wind gusts will be seen across
extreme southwest parts of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western
north Texas associated with this weakening complex. There are hints
that an MCV would evolve from this complex and progress slowly
eastward across southern Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This will keep
at least chance pops in the forecast for late tonight and tomorrow
across southern and central Oklahoma, where we could see an area of
rain persisting near and east of this MCV. Main impact with that
activity will be minor flooding given the persistent 1.5"+
precipitable water environment antecedent conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Shortwave ridging aloft will temporarily reduce rain chances on
Wednesday, before another wave and surface cold front bring a much
higher chance for rain and storms Thursday and Friday. The ridging
will also help to raise temperatures a bit before the widespread
rain brings back the cool-ish daytime temperatures and warm/humid
nighttime lows.

With moderate instability in place, the increased vertical wind
shear will provide support for stronger thunderstorms by late
week, particularly on Thursday. Models have been suggesting MCS-
type storms Thursday evening and overnight. This still appears to
be a reasonable prospect.

The front will continue south into Texas Friday and Saturday,
then wash out early next week. Initially, this will lower the rain
chances (and temperatures), but early in the week, return flow
will begin, bringing higher moisture levels back to Oklahoma and
north Texas. This will result in a similar situation to the
current mild/humid conditions with scattered tropical-style
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Still expect MVFR to IFR cigs overnight into early Tue morning for
most terminals. A cluster of thunderstorms will approaches SPS
from the west around 06Z but should diminish and perhaps slide
south so did not mention TSRA there for now. BR may result in
lower visbys over the central OK terminals after 9Z or so but
should remain above 1SM. Flight conditions will improve a bit
after 15Z Tue for all terminals.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  66  80  66 /  70  20  30  50
Hobart OK         75  63  83  64 /  30  20  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  76  66  83  68 /  40  30  30  20
Gage OK           75  61  85  61 /  20  20  30  50
Ponca City OK     71  65  82  65 /  60  20  40  50
Durant OK         74  67  81  69 / 100  60  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-260330-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1027 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
later this evening in western border areas of Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of western north Texas. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat.

.Fog...
Patchy fog may develop across portions of central Oklahoma late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Visibility may drop to below
one mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
A chance for thunderstorms exist each day this week. A marginal
risk for severe weather is expected later Tuesday and Wednesday
across western Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm risk expands on
Thursday, with a slight risk covering much of Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ083-084-087-250500-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Hardeman TX-
1130 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Foard...western Knox and
southwestern Hardeman Counties Until midnight CDT...

AT 1127 PM CDT, the leading edge of strong and gusty thunderstorm
winds extended along a line extending from 4 miles south of
Swearingen to 7 miles northeast of Guthrie, moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3422 10005 3426 9961 3383 9964 3345 9976
      3351 9999 3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 278DEG 30KT 3409 10018 3371 10024

MAD