Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

In the abnormally moist airmass that will around beyond Wednesday,
rain and thunderstorms will occur with the aid of residual
mesoscale boundaries and weak flow aloft around the closed low
over northeastern NM. This low will move little through Wednesday
allowing for several weak impulses to affect much of Oklahoma with
the main area for heavy rainfall continuing to be southeastern
Oklahoma. The flood watch was cancelled this morning for central
and southwestern Oklahoma, but remains in effect for south central
and southeastern Oklahoma. Lesser rain amounts are expected in
south central parts but this areas has had more rainfall over the
last few days. Heavier or repeated rainfall is expected to affect
southeastern areas more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

A weak and disorganized mid-level wave will move through the area
on Thursday as the next larger scale wave enters the West Coast.
Mid-level flow throughout the period will foster lee troughing
along the Rockies, which will favor southerly surface flow into
the beginning of next week. With such anomalous southerly flow for
this time of year, surface moisture advection will keep mid to
upper 60s dewpoints across the area. As this larger scale wave
gets closer to the Southern Plains, smaller perturbations within
the flow will help to bring precipitation chances across the area
through the weekend and into the beginning of next weak. Models
suggest that there will be some instability with any precipitating
event, so the chances of storms to be severe do do exist. The
potential for organized severe storms will be limited owing to
weak shear throughout the long term. On Sunday, models are hinting
that the larger scale wave will lift northward as a blocking
ridge dominates the the Southeast and parts of the Midwest. If the
base of the trough can develop a more easterly track, a few
solutions could be possible. The first is that the dryline
(currently forecasted to stay in the western TX Panhandle) could
mix more towards the east into parts of western OK. The second is
that there could be sufficient deep-layer shear, juxtaposed with
modest instability, to support organized storms. Subsequent
forecasts will have to watch this trend into the weekend.

Flooding could be a concern in the long term if precipitation
continues to train over areas that have already received a lot of
rainfall over the last week. Precipitable water will remain above
normal for this time of year, so any precipitating activity could
bring with it enough rainfall capable of producing flooding and
flash flooding.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

The showers and thunderstorms moving into western Oklahoma will
move east, but the weakening trend observed recently is expected
to continue and these showers/storms will likely not move very far
east into the area before dissipating. Lower clouds (with MVFR and
locally IFR ceilings) have developed across southeast Oklahoma and
north central Texas and will likely spread into more of Oklahoma
and north Texas through the early morning hours, although the
timing of this development is going to be tricky. Some scattered
showers and storms will develop again during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

An Upper Air flight is currently not planned today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  76  63  75 /  40  40  50  60
Hobart OK         60  78  61  77 /  40  30  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  63  78  63  78 /  40  40  40  40
Gage OK           56  78  58  78 /  40  30  30  10
Ponca City OK     63  77  63  76 /  60  50  50  60
Durant OK         64  76  65  77 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ031-032-040>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

OKZ036-037-TXZ083>085-087-088-190530-
Tillman OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-Baylor TX-
Hardeman TX-
1148 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman...south
central Jackson...southeastern Foard...eastern Knox...Wilbarger...
Baylor and southeastern Hardeman Counties Until 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1147 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
7 miles northwest of Chillicothe to near Thalia to near Munday,
moving east at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9967 3396 9960 3437 9962 3449 9896
      3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 269DEG 43KT 3435 9958 3396 9956 3345 9961

03

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