Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
406 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...New UPDATE, UPPER AIR...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Updated late afternoon forecast for increased chances of rain
across southwest Oklahoma. Main round of potentially strong to
severe storms will be mainly after about 8 or 9 pm across western
Oklahoma. Given latest radar signatures from current storms over
southwest Oklahoma, and the anticipated environment tonight, we
could be dealing with heat bursts overnight with dissipating
storms, with highest chances across west-central and northern
Oklahoma.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Latest satellite/radar data shows a line of convection over
the TX panhandle. Added chance of showers/thunderstorms for
western Oklahoma later this morning and this afternoon as this
area of precipitation moves east. These storms are not expected to
be severe, and may generally weaken over the next few hours.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase across western and
northern Oklahoma tonight as a midlevel shortwave approaches. A few
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging
wind gusts and hail being the main hazards.
Tomorrow is expected to be warmer, and chances for showers/storms
continue - mainly across northern and southwest Oklahoma into
western north TX. With a wave crossing west TX and moderate
instability and little to no CIN prog'd, best chances for strong to
severe storm development would be across southwest OK and western
north TX but will be dependent on the amount of lift that occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Should any late afternoon convection develop Saturday across our
area, storms could be ongoing for a few hours during the evening
hours till sundown.  Any late afternoon convection firing up near
the dryline in the Panhandles could produce a few severe storms
across far western Oklahoma should any track in before sundown, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary hazards. Otherwise
aloft, a large amplitude trough will be in place across the
California Coast, with a ridge downflow extending from the Southern
Rocky Mountains to the Southern High Plains. Expecting the ridge to
kink into a shortwave, and interact with mid-level moisture to
produce some additional but higher based storms overnight moving
west to east across our area into Sunday.  Although elevated
instability is expected to decrease overnight to 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, the enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet may produce a
few strong to marginal severe storms.  Another shortwave rolling in
off the Southern High Plains will bring another round of elevated
storms Sunday evening and overnight across our area. With steep low
to mid level lapse rates persisting, will continue to see a marginal
risk for severe storms with hail and winds as the hazards.

By Monday, our near zonal flow aloft shifts more southwesterly as
the large scale upper trough digging across the U.S. Southwest
starts approaching, keeping a wet forecast every day next week. The
persistent rainfall accumulations could shift from severe to more
flooding hazards by early Monday, with over 4-inches of storm total
accumulated rainfall by then.  The models bring the upper low &
trough axis through our area toward late Wednesday adding another
couple of inches of additional rainfall.  By Thursday expecting the
upper system to gradually exit, although could see another wave come
through on Friday with additional rain possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Breezy south winds persist through the period with sustained
winds diminishing overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
observed over southwest Oklahoma continue to track slowly
eastward, and are expected to fizzle out over the next few hours.

Shower and storm chances increase again for western TAF sites
by evening, though high resolution models suggest storms may not
reach Oklahoma until well after sunset. Storms may be strong to
severe and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph. Areas of storms may weaken into showers as it reaches
central Oklahoma late Friday night, though models diverge on
whether rain reaches central Oklahoma. LLWS is anticipated after
midnight through Saturday morning.

Thompson

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  79  63  72 /  10  20  60  80
Hobart OK         61  82  62  77 /  20  30  60  70
Wichita Falls TX  62  80  64  77 /  20  30  70  80
Gage OK           60  85  59  80 /  50  30  50  50
Ponca City OK     59  78  62  73 /  60  60  70  80
Durant OK         58  79  63  74 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151545-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1040 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...

A few thunderstorms will occur in western Oklahoma through early
afternoon. Severe storms are not expected during this time.

Additional thunderstorms will move into western and northern
Oklahoma early to mid evening. Damaging winds to 70 mph will be
the primary threat, although large hail up to golf ball size is
possible. Thunderstorms will continue moving eastward into the
night and will likely be less of a threat late in the night as
they weaken.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning across portions
of northern Oklahoma. Some strong to severe storms capable of
producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of
quarters will be possible with this activity.

Additional thunderstorms are expected late Saturday afternoon
thru early Sunday morning. Severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts
exceeding 60 mph will be possible across portions of northwestern,
western, and southwestern Oklahoma, and western north Texas
before midnight Sunday morning. A low threat of severe
thunderstorms will continue into early Sunday morning across
portions of central and southern Oklahoma.

Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday thru Thursday area
wide, with at least low chances of severe thunderstorms.

.Heavy Rainfall...
At least localized flooding will be possible area wide Sunday
thru Thursday. Many locations from northern to southern Oklahoma
could receive over 3 inches of total rainfall.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

OKZ021-033-034-141800-
Harmon OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
1233 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Harmon...
southwestern Beckham and northwestern Greer Counties Until 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1232 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
of Shamrock, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Dime size hail...

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Harmon, southwestern Beckham and northwestern Greer Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 10000 3516 9970 3494 9980 3502 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 289DEG 13KT 3517 10019

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
232 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

OKZ034>036-142000-
Kiowa OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
232 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Kiowa...central
Greer and north central Jackson Counties Until 300 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mangum, moving
southeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3490 9967 3504 9953 3492 9921 3468 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 309DEG 23KT 3492 9953

JT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
436 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

OKZ035-038-142200-
Kiowa OK-Comanche OK-
436 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Kiowa and western
Comanche Counties Until 500 PM CDT...

Strong winds from a dissipating thunderstorm are possible extending
from near Roosevelt to Medicine Park and Lawton.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Tom Sneed Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now. Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 9913 3496 9891 3469 9837 3448 9864
      3449 9866 3451 9866 3451 9869 3457 9883
      3459 9883 3459 9887 3468 9905 3469 9904
      3470 9905 3470 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 300DEG 40KT 3477 9898

JP