Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Scattered showers will continue to work east across portions of
northern Oklahoma this morning and may linger though much of the day
as minor upper level disturbance moves across Kansas. Meanwhile
further south, waa pattern develops, although models have begun to
show this pattern remaining further south across Texas than previous
runs. So will look at lowering precip chances for this afternoon,
but likely not removing entirely.

By Monday night, approaching shortwave trough will strengthen waa
across the area from west to east overnight, resulting in mainly
light precipitation developing across areas to our west and then
further east by Tuesday morning. Instability will be slow to
develop, but a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible,
while severe weather chances remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Widespread cloud cover and precip will limit daytime insolation and
a rather cool day is anticipated for Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be
some 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms. As trough axis moves to
the east, rain chances will diminish from west to east Tuesday night
Wednesday.

Shortwave ridging will build east out of the Rockies by the end of
the week with warmer temperatures and drier conditions. This will
however put the Plains in a northwest flow pattern and we could see
High Plains convection develop and move southeast toward the area by
Friday night into Saturday. Could see another round Saturday night
into Sunday, perhaps a bit further east as ridge begins to shift
east as western trough develops into the western conus. Model
differences keep latter part of extended with lower confidence, but
pattern would suggest a higher probability of severe weather as we
go into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Showers will move through northwest and north central OK this
morning. Mostly MVFR conditions are expected at each site
throughout the period. NNE winds will prevail across the area.
Ceilings could come up to VFR in the early afternoon, but then are
expected to drop by down to MVFR this evening again. Showers
could impact each site towards the end of the period.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

No soundings are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  50  57  49 /  10  40  70  30
Hobart OK         67  49  57  48 /  10  40  70  30
Wichita Falls TX  64  54  61  52 /  20  50  80  40
Gage OK           62  43  54  43 /  20  40  60  30
Ponca City OK     63  47  59  48 /  40  30  60  30
Durant OK         64  54  61  53 /  30  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
804 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111315-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
804 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across portions of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas today with chances spreading
across parts of western Oklahoma late tonight. A strong to
marginally severe storm or two may occur this morning thru late this
afternoon across far southern Oklahoma. The strongest storms may
be capable of producing up to quarter size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances persist Tuesday and Wednesday across parts of
the area, but severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

Thunderstorm chances return to parts of Oklahoma and western north
Texas Friday night and continue through Sunday. A few strong to
severe storms appear possible with this activity.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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