Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

May 3, 2021Carter County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this special weather statement at May 3, 2021, 5:05 PM CDT for Carter County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2021, 5:05 PM CDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2021, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK

County Carter County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 993 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -487 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 923 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 3, 2:10 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 2:10 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
210 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Overnight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Storms are expected to develop quickly late this afternoon into this
evening along a cold front that will be located across portions of
southeast into south central Oklahoma. A favorable environment for
severe storms will exist ahead of the cold front across this area.
Initially as storms are expected to be more discrete, supercells
capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes will be possible
along with strong winds gusts.

This activity will become more linear, probably just as it exits our
southeast counties, winds will be an increasing threat.

Meanwhile, farther west as the main trough begins to shift east out
of the southern Rockies, additional storms will develop across west
Texas. These storms will be elevated as they form well north of the
surface cold front. However, sufficient instability will exist for
some large hail as these storms move into the western north Texas
counties. As we approach midnight, instability will be waining and
hail size is expected to decrease as storms move toward the I-35
corridor of southern Oklahoma. Other, weaker activity will also
impact much of western and northern Oklahoma overnight.

Otherwise, quite a bit colder air will filter south behind the cold
front. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s across
portions of northwest Oklahoma with gusty north winds, giving it a
bit of a bite. Lows in the 50s are expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

System that will bring showers/storms tonight will exit the area
Tuesday morning. Some showers may linger in parts of the fa tomorrow
morning but should end by mid-day. Sfc high will also settle into
the area tomorrow with below average temperatures expected. As the
sfc high moves off to the east, winds will shift back towards the
south Wednesday.

Models then show a shortwave approaching from the northwest and
moving across the Plains Wednesday night. Models show an area of
showers/storms moving across parts of the fa with this shortwave
although disagree on how much and path of the area of rain.

Upper ridging will briefly occur behind the previously mentioned
shortwave before flattening out the end of this week with a
shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains Friday night
bringing another chance for showers/storms to parts of the area.
Various shortwaves/disturbances moving through the flow will
continue over the weekend which will maintain the chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

Lingering MVFR ceilings behind the cold front will struggle to
rise to VFR late today and this evening. Some patchy drizzle may
impacts OKC and perhaps LAW/CSM for a brief period this afternoon.
North winds will also remain rather gusty overnight. Any VFR
ceilings will likely drop back into MVFR overnight. There will be
a period where there is enough of a chance of tsra to include
either a tempo of prob group this evening or overnight. MVFR
ceilings will linger through the end of the forecast period. Winds
will gradually diminish Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

A 19Z May 3 Upper Air flight was done today. A 0Z flight currently
is not planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  63  44  70 /  40  40   0   0
Hobart OK         52  68  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  69  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           46  66  41  74 /  60  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     51  65  41  68 /  50  40   0  10
Durant OK         59  68  46  73 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30

Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 12:17 PM CDT, 4 hours 48 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1217 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from 6 PM to
midnight across portions of southern and eastern Oklahoma. The
enhanced risk area is near and east of a line from Allen to
Fittstown to Lake Murray. Tornadoes will be possible with
supercells that develop in the enhanced area, along with hail up
to the size of baseballs and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph.
There is a medium potential of tornadoes in southeast Oklahoma,
generally east of a line from Allen to Fittstown to Lake Murray.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms south and east of a
line from Eldorado to Marlow to Noble and Cushing.

A cold front will move through Oklahoma and north Texas today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
afternoon north of the cold front, but these storms are not expected
to be severe through much of the day.

By early this evening, additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the cold front across southeastern Oklahoma and these
thunderstorms may be severe with the potential of tornadoes, large
hail and strong winds. Low-level wind shear will be enough for an
isolated tornado threat with the strongest storms in southeast
Oklahoma near and ahead of the cold front. Farther north and west,
additional elevated thunderstorms may develop in west Texas and
move east across north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening
north of the cold front. The primary risk with these storms will
be large hail up to the size of golf balls.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
southern and eastern Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations after 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Overnight thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning across north
central, portions of central into eastern Oklahoma, although
severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night with no severe
weather expected. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday evening
and continue through Sunday, although storms are not expected to
be widespread.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 3, 4:56 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
456 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ004-009-032245-
Harper OK-Ellis OK-
456 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Harper and northwestern Ellis
Counties Until 545 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Laverne, moving northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Laverne, Buffalo and May.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 9966 3669 9942 3650 10000 3651 10001
      3675 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 239DEG 37KT 3660 9997

03

Special weather statement, May 3, 5:05 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
505 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

OKZ046-050-032230-
Love OK-Carter OK-
505 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Love and
southeastern Carter Counties Until 530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Wilson, moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Lone Grove, Dickson, Springer, Lake Murray and Overbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 9740 3409 9745 3432 9723 3430 9710
      3415 9701 3397 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 258DEG 22KT 3409 9733

Mahale

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 4:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	49 min
May 3, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Love, Murray	51 min
May 3, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Murray	51 min
May 3, 5:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garvin, Murray	26 min
May 3, 5:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	25 min
May 3, 5:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Murray	67 min
May 3, 6:00 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Carter, Garvin, Johnston, Love, Murray, Pontotoc	5 hr
May 3, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc	58 min
May 3, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Love	36 min
May 3, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garvin, McClain, Murray	33 min
May 3, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Love	26 min
May 3, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Hughes	35 min
May 3, 6:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Coal, Johnston, Pontotoc	42 min
May 3, 6:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Coal, Hughes, Pontotoc	40 min
May 3, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Murray	37 min
May 3, 6:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Johnston	36 min
May 3, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Love, Marshall	8 min
May 3, 6:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Carter, Murray	3 hr
May 3, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.