Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The upper trough is currently tracking across CO/NM and the
surface low continues to develop over the TX panhandle. Low-
level moisture will continue to advect into our area through
this evening. Latest mesoanalysis data shows steep lapse rates in
place and increasing MUCAPE indicates destabilization is
underway over western/southern Oklahoma and north TX. Increased
POPs for 18Z Friday through 06Z Saturday, as CAMS suggest
widespread convection across portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma around mid- day. Some of these storms may be
strong to severe.

The surface low is prog'd to track southeast along the Red River
and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over
southwest Oklahoma by early evening. CAMS suggest storms will grow
upscale along the front with perhaps a bowing segment as it moves
through south-central Oklahoma later this evening. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The upper trough is currently tracking across CO/NM and the
surface low continues to develop over the TX panhandle. Low-
level moisture will continue to advect into our area through
this evening. Latest mesoanalysis data shows steep lapse rates in
place and increasing MUCAPE indicates destabilization is
underway over western/southern Oklahoma and north TX. Increased
POPs for 18Z Friday through 06Z Saturday, as CAMS suggest
widespread convection across portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma around mid- day. Some of these storms may be
strong to severe.

The surface low is prog'd to track southeast along the Red River
and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over
southwest Oklahoma by early evening. CAMS suggest storms will grow
upscale along the front with perhaps a bowing segment as it moves
through south-central Oklahoma later this evening. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Gusty winds Saturday morning behind the front will decrease through
the day as the surface ridge quickly builds over the area. The
airmass behind the front will not offer much change in temperatures,
as highs reach near 70 to the mid 70s across southwest OK by
Saturday afternoon. As the surface high slides eastward and upper
ridging builds overhead temperatures will warm further Sunday. Lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies will tighten the pressure gradient
over the area during the day, which will lead to a period of gusty
south winds, especially across western OK. This will increase fire
weather concerns on Sunday across extreme western portions of the
area to the west of a dryline, with similar conditions possible
Monday and Tuesday (depending on dryline positioning this may end up
confined to the TX/OK panhandles).

A deep trough approaches by Tuesday, with models continuing to
disagree on timing and amplitude of the trough. Moisture return no
longer looks to be a question as models advertise now agree on a
deeper, slower trough with more meridional flow. There are still so
me timing differences, however, with the GFS faster and further east
with the dryline on Tuesday (central OK) and the ECM slower and
further west (western OK or the TX panhandle). Given such a deep
trough the slower solution seems more likely (and appears to be the
trend in the models the last few days). The slowing of the trough
may linger the severe risk into Wednesday for at least eastern
portions of the area and may also increase the risk for flooding
concerns. Bottom line, the ingredients still appear favorable for
severe weather in our area Tuesday (and perhaps Wednesday as well),
but details still remain unclear on exactly where and when the
greatest threat will occur.

The front should clear the area by Wednesday night, but the upper
trough will linger overhead through the end of the week. This should
keep temperatures cooler than average to end the week with dry
conditions.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Mostly IFR/MVFR conditions are expected this evening through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact
all TAF sites this evening and into the overnight. The primary
threats with these thunderstorms are large hail and wind gusts up
to 80 mph. A cold front is expected to move through the area this
evening, with winds shifting back to the the ENE tomorrow at the
end of the period.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z on 04/24..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  69  48  79 /  90  10   0   0
Hobart OK         49  72  47  85 /  90   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  73  49  86 /  70   0   0   0
Gage OK           43  71  48  88 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  69  46  78 / 100  10   0   0
Durant OK         55  73  49  80 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
230 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
230 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across Oklahoma and northern Texas. Severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across western north Texas and southwestern
OK may contain hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging wind
gusts around 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

During the evening hours, thunderstorms are expected to become
more numerous across central and south central Oklahoma. These
storms will mainly pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
As storms move east of Interstate 35 this evening, the hail threat
is expected to decrease some, but damaging winds will still be a
concern.

Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are also a concern,
especially across central and southern OK as several rounds of
storms are expected this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible next Tuesday across most of
the region.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday through
Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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