Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
201 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The upper trough is currently tracking across CO/NM and the
surface low continues to develop over the TX panhandle. Low-
level moisture will continue to advect into our area through
this evening. Latest mesoanalysis data shows steep lapse rates in
place and increasing MUCAPE indicates destabilization is
underway over western/southern Oklahoma and north TX. Increased
POPs for 18Z Friday through 06Z Saturday, as CAMS suggest
widespread convection across portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma around mid- day. Some of these storms may be
strong to severe.

The surface low is prog'd to track southeast along the Red River
and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over
southwest Oklahoma by early evening. CAMS suggest storms will grow
upscale along the front with perhaps a bowing segment as it moves
through south-central Oklahoma later this evening. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The upper trough is currently tracking across CO/NM and the
surface low continues to develop over the TX panhandle. Low-
level moisture will continue to advect into our area through
this evening. Latest mesoanalysis data shows steep lapse rates in
place and increasing MUCAPE indicates destabilization is
underway over western/southern Oklahoma and north TX. Increased
POPs for 18Z Friday through 06Z Saturday, as CAMS suggest
widespread convection across portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma around mid- day. Some of these storms may be
strong to severe.

The surface low is prog'd to track southeast along the Red River
and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over
southwest Oklahoma by early evening. CAMS suggest storms will grow
upscale along the front with perhaps a bowing segment as it moves
through south-central Oklahoma later this evening. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are possible.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Gusty winds Saturday morning behind the front will decrease through
the day as the surface ridge quickly builds over the area. The
airmass behind the front will not offer much change in temperatures,
as highs reach near 70 to the mid 70s across southwest OK by
Saturday afternoon. As the surface high slides eastward and upper
ridging builds overhead temperatures will warm further Sunday. Lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies will tighten the pressure gradient
over the area during the day, which will lead to a period of gusty
south winds, especially across western OK. This will increase fire
weather concerns on Sunday across extreme western portions of the
area to the west of a dryline, with similar conditions possible
Monday and Tuesday (depending on dryline positioning this may end up
confined to the TX/OK panhandles).

A deep trough approaches by Tuesday, with models continuing to
disagree on timing and amplitude of the trough. Moisture return no
longer looks to be a question as models advertise now agree on a
deeper, slower trough with more meridional flow. There are still so
me timing differences, however, with the GFS faster and further east
with the dryline on Tuesday (central OK) and the ECM slower and
further west (western OK or the TX panhandle). Given such a deep
trough the slower solution seems more likely (and appears to be the
trend in the models the last few days). The slowing of the trough
may linger the severe risk into Wednesday for at least eastern
portions of the area and may also increase the risk for flooding
concerns. Bottom line, the ingredients still appear favorable for
severe weather in our area Tuesday (and perhaps Wednesday as well),
but details still remain unclear on exactly where and when the
greatest threat will occur.

The front should clear the area by Wednesday night, but the upper
trough will linger overhead through the end of the week. This should
keep temperatures cooler than average to end the week with dry
conditions.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. Latest radar shows scattered thunderstorms developing over
south-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
over western north Texas within the next hour or two, with severe
storm threat increasing through the afternoon and evening hours
for most TAF sites. Large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 80
mph are possible this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Upper air flights are planned for 12Z this morning, 18Z this
afternoon, and 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  52  69  48 /  70  90  10   0
Hobart OK         72  49  72  47 /  60  90   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  53  73  49 /  70  70   0   0
Gage OK           68  43  71  48 /  30  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  51  69  46 /  90 100  10   0
Durant OK         69  55  73  49 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
822 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241330-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
822 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening
across Oklahoma and northern Texas. Severe thunderstorms may
develop as early as 5 PM across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas, where hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging wind
gusts around 70 mph, and an isolated tornado are possible.

During the evening hours, thunderstorms are expected to become
more numerous across central and south central Oklahoma. These
storms will mainly pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
As storms move east of Interstate 35 this evening, the hail threat
is expected to decrease some, but damaging winds will still be a
concern.

Other scattered thunderstorms may develop before late afternoon.
A few of these storms may produce hail to the size of half dollars
and heavy rainfall, especially across parts of southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible next Tuesday across most of
the region.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are possible
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday through
Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
145 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

OKZ039-044-045-231915-
Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Jefferson OK-
145 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Cotton...
southwestern Stephens and northwestern Jefferson Counties Until 215
PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Temple, moving
northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 9828 3421 9839 3457 9809 3428 9766
      3413 9823 3414 9823 3413 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 231DEG 48KT 3425 9819

TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
148 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 NW LAWTON             34.62N 98.42W
04/23/2021  E0.88 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

BT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
149 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

OKZ023-027-038-231915-
Grady OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
149 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Grady...southeastern
Caddo and northeastern Comanche Counties Until 215 PM CDT...

AT 149 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fletcher,
moving northeast at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3487 9837 3515 9811 3483 9772 3468 9805
      3468 9814 3469 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 230DEG 44KT 3480 9823

JP

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