Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
803 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Convective initiation has occurred with one severe storm southwest
of Childress during the past hour, and new CI now occurring in
the north central Texas Panhandle. A warm front is oriented sw-ne
from the northern Texas Panhandle across northwestern Oklahoma
from roughly Gage...to Woodward...to Ponca City. The southeastern
Texas Panhandle storm/s were likely rooted near the boundary layer
but high based. Newer convective now originating over the
northern Texas Panhandle is likely elevated north of the front.

Moisture return today continues to lag, but some mid 50 degree
dewpoints are now near the Red River, but 60+ deg dewpoints
continue to lag south of DFW to near/east of Abilene. Still strong
forcing for ascent is advancing eastward over the Panhandles and
will promote more widespread convective development in the next
1-4 hours. Effective shear supports more discrete modes with
activity along the dryline emerging from the southeastern Texas
Panhandle/southwestern Oklahoma, while storm modes will quickly
become messy over the northwestern area. Thus, large hail and
damaging winds remain the primary hazard south of the front with a
threat of mainly large hail and heavy rainfall north of the
boundary. Given the wind profile, an isolated tornado threat may
not be out of the question as moisture rapidly returns later
tonight and if any storm can remain discrete in proximity to the
warm front.

TL

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

The main concerns for the short term: 1) severe thunderstorms
likely tonight, 2) snowfall over far NW counties tomorrow, and 3)
strong northwest winds tomorrow.

Latest water vapor imagery depicts the location of a strong upper
trough near the AZ/NM border. The 7.34 micron water vapor imagery
shows an EML moving across west Texas and towards northwest OK.
This may keep capping in place and promote severe storm
development tonight. The 20Z surface observations chart indicates
a surface low developing near Woodward with a dryline extending
to near Watonga to Hinton to Altus, and a warm front draped
across north-central Oklahoma. Very warm temperatures are
observed with widespread mid to upper 70s, and dewpoint
temperatures have increased into the low 50s over portions of
central Oklahoma as that plume of moisture moves northwestward.

The potent upper low continues east towards our CWA and is prog'd
to reach the TX panhandle overnight into early Wednesday morning,
as a low level jet develops across western OK/TX. MUCAPE will
rapidly increase between 03-06Z Wednesday up to NW OK with SBCAPE
increasing to 2000 J/kg (central OK) and 2500 J/kg (southern OK)
by 09Z. With bulk shear upwards of 70kts near the triple point,
supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop over NW OK between
03-06Z Wednesday. These storms will be capable of producing very large
hail up to the size of baseballs. Supercells are then forecast to
fire along the dryline over western Oklahoma and adjacent
portions of western north TX by 06Z. Mean wind vectors indicate
quick storm movement tracking northeast at a 40-50 knots.
Interestingly, the synoptic models and the latest HRRR trends
indicate a drying over central Oklahoma which suggest the OKC
metro may be spared storms. Given the environment, however, will
have to watch this closely. Time of arrival for central OK would
be around 09Z as the surface low moves overhead.

By mid morning tomorrow, wrap-around precipitation should turn to
snow over far NW Oklahoma and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect
from 12Z Wed to 00Z Thurs. Given impressive QPF amounts (1.5-2.0
inches) over NW Oklahoma, and surface temperatures in the
mid/upper 30s, there is a lot of uncertainty with to how much
snowfall will accumulate. For now, have around 2 to possibly 4
inches of snow near Harper, Woodward, and Ellis Counties. Very
strong northwest winds are expected to enter are area from the
west by Wednesday morning, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for
areas north/west of I-44. Sustained winds near 40 mph and gusts to
50 mph will be possible, particularly for western Oklahoma and
western north TX.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, precipitation exits the area
in northern Oklahoma, with precip ending west to east. Most of this
precipitation is expected to remain rain, with some possible
lingering snow in far northwestern Oklahoma. Clearing skies and a
return to normal temperatures is expected to follow late in the week
into the weekend. Precipitation chances return to the region
starting Monday into early next week as another long wave upper air
trough moves through the region. Most of the precip will be showers,
however a few thunderstorms are possible as the trough traverses the
area.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR as moisture
advects northward into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will
also likely impact central and northern sites later this evening
and through the overnight and will likely liner across the north
during the day Wednesday. Colder air will also allow a transtion
to snow at WWR by 18Z. As the storm system moves across gusty
southeast to east winds will shift to the north overnight and
through the day tomorrow with very strong gusty northwest winds
expected at most sites by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  50  62  37 /   0  70  20  10
Hobart OK         76  43  54  35 /   0  50  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  48  61  39 /   0  50   0   0
Gage OK           75  39  39  30 /   0  80  80  10
Ponca City OK     74  51  62  36 /   0  90  50  50
Durant OK         78  56  69  42 /   0  80  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>029-
     033>039-044-045.

     Winter Storm Watch from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004-009-010.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Severe storms...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the
Panhandles, and then spread east into Oklahoma and western north
Texas this evening. The storms will advance east overnight into
central and eastern Oklahoma. Large hail will be the primary risk
with these storms, but damaging winds and tornadoes will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Snow...
Rain will likely change to snow across far northwestern Oklahoma
Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations are possible, especially on
grassy areas.

.Wind...
Strong northwest winds will spread across the region on Wednesday,
with frequent gusts 30 to 50 mph, with the stronger winds across
the western parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Strong winds and dry air will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday, slightly mitigated by cool temperatures.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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