Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
520 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

We are monitoring the clearing over southwest parts of Oklahoma
where sufficient warming into the lower 70s is eroding the cap.
Overall convergence in the warm sector and near warm front is
weak at the moment, but convergence appears to be increasing some
from near Erick, eastward toward Anadarko. Thus we will monitor
for convective development across southwest and west-central
Oklahoma over the next 2 to 3 hours. Complex and widespread
boundary layer wave clouds still indicate stability, but more in
the way of deeper HCR development noted spreading into western
north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from the west. Large hail would
be the primary concern if any storm that forms is able to mature.
Movement of any storm would be fast (30 to 40+ KT) to the north
and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing and will continue to develop this
afternoon across the Texas panhandle. Initially, these thunderstorms
should be quasi-discrete supercells. However, the thunderstorms are
expected to eventually grow upscale and coalesce into a qasi-linear
convective system as they cross the 100th meridian into Oklahoma,
coincident with decreasing buoyancy with eastward extent.

Consequently, the (relatively) highest threat for severe weather
will be along the first row or two of counties, east of the 100th
meridian, for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Embedded
supercellular structures and/or mesovortices will result in an
attendant tornado threat as well, especially with a strengthening
low-level jet. We'll have to watch for any discrete supercells
that remain ahead of the line, which would have a higher tornado
risk. Another area we'll have to watch carefully (for convection)
is along the remnant/diffuse front or to its south in the warm
sector (see update above). Even if this occurs, they could quickly
cross the front into the cooler air mass.

Severe weather risk should markedly decrease as the storms move past
the first row or two of counties toward central Oklahoma and become
elevated and lose their intensity. As a matter of fact, it appears
more likely the storms will be non-severe than severe by the time
they approach Central Oklahoma. However, with a moderate to strong
low-level jet, some gusty winds may still reach the surface.
Convection should exit by far southeast Oklahoma Sunday morning.

In the systems's wake, breezy south to southwest winds are expected
tomorrow afternoon--especially across the western half of Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of north Texas. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions may develop by the afternoon, especially across
the far southwest parts of the area. A Fire Danger Statement may
be needed.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the
60s and 70s deg F. As a shortwave trough approaches from the west
on Tuesday, a low-level thermal ridge will develop across the
Southern Plains. As a result, above-average temperatures are
forecast by Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 70s to near 80 deg
F.

Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night
into early Wednesday as the system moves through with increasing
instability and shear ahead of the aforementioned wave. Currently,
any wrap-around precipitation is expected to be rain as of right
now. Colder weather is expected in the front's wake with below
average temperatures for the latter half of the week.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Mainly MVFR conditions expected tonight. Some showers possible
early in the forecast before a line of storms moves from west to
east across the area impacting all the sites overnight. This
activity should push east shortly after sunrise with quickly
clearing skies. Gusty southeast winds this evening will weaken
some toward morning before south/southwest winds increase again by
mid/late morning on back side of exiting storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  66  45  66 /  90  10   0   0
Hobart OK         45  64  42  66 / 100   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  68  47  71 / 100   0   0   0
Gage OK           39  62  36  60 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  66  44  63 /  80  40   0  10
Durant OK         53  68  48  73 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

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