Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

At the time of this writing the cold front has advanced and
stalled just past the I-44 corridor with temperatures holding in
the upper 30s and 40s behind the front, and climbing into the 50s
and 60s in the warm moist flow ahead of the front.

Late this afternoon into the evening, scattered showers and storms
will begin moving up from the south, gradually increasing in
coverage. Modest instability combined with strong shear will support
a few strong to severe storms late evening, mainly in the
warm sector southeast of I-44. QPF will be enhanced along the stalled
surface front (mainly along and just southeast of the I-44
corridor) with storm totals of 1 to 2 inches expected.

Later overnight, the upper low will move in toward the panhandles
triggering a second round of storms along the low level front
(around 850mb). This line will race eastward into Monday morning.
With more upper level support and better organized convection, the
severe risk will continue with this second round of storms.

Models continue show temperatures in the 30 to 34 degree
Fahrenheit range over northwest Oklahoma. Our forecast will be to
keep temperatures just on the warm side of freezing (supported by
most of the raw model guidance), but mention a low chance for
wintry mix. Widespread precipitation will result in efficient
wetbulbing overnight, but dewpoints are expected to be high enough
to keep temperatures just above freezing.

Will continue to follow the NAM for frontal position and post-
frontal temps today, tonight, and tomorrow due to its history with
anafronts. Expect the front to gradually lift up to northern
Oklahoma tomorrow (allowing warmer temperatures to return to
southern Oklahoma and north Texas) before another front comes
sweeping through tomorrow night.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

With the next front coming down Monday night, we will see a
reinforcement of cold air.

Another system will move through late Tuesday / early Wednesday
bringing another chance at wintry mix (though moisture will be
limited).

Ridging will build in Thursday and Friday allowing temperatures to
warm, followed by another system with accompanying precipitation
chances this weekend.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Poor flying conditions are expected overnight with periods of rain
and scattered thunderstorms. Visibility reduction briefly to
around or below a mile in the strongest storms, along with small
hail, will be possible. Otherwise low ceilings will persist
through at least mid-morning, and linger even longer at northern
TAF sites. Then, stronger westerly or northwesterly winds are
expected with a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  41  56  27 /  30 100  10   0
Hobart OK         49  34  58  27 /  30  90   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  44  64  32 /  50 100   0   0
Gage OK           41  33  41  20 /  10  90  10   0
Ponca City OK     46  40  41  24 /  20 100  20   0
Durant OK         59  53  66  35 /  50  90  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251845-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1243 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few severe storms will be possible late today through tonight
across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. There is a
slight risk across portions of north Texas and most of southern
Oklahoma. Hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts
exceeding 60 mph will be the main threats. A few strong storms may
also occur in central and western Oklahoma, capable of producing
small hail and gusty winds. The threat of severe weather will end
around 4 AM.

.Winter Weather...
Light freezing rain will be possible late tonight across northwest
Oklahoma. A glaze of ice may occur on some elevated surfaces by
Monday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations late Sunday evening through Monday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Winter Weather...
Light wintry precipitation may continue Monday morning across far
northwest Oklahoma. Light wintry precipitation is possible
Tuesday in far northwest Oklahoma and then again Tuesday night
into Wednesday across northern and parts of central Oklahoma. Very
little ice and snow accumulations are expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     HAIL             IOWA PARK               33.96N 98.68W
01/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
138 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

OKZ036-037-TXZ083>085-250815-
Tillman OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Wilbarger TX-Hardeman TX-
138 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Tillman...south central
Jackson...east central Foard...Wilbarger and southeastern Hardeman
Counties Until 215 AM CST...

AT 137 AM CST, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Chillicothe to 3 miles southwest of Lockett to 4 miles southeast
of Thalia, moving northeast at 65 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Frederick, Tipton, Chillicothe, Davidson, Thalia, Harrold,
Lockett, Fargo, Medicine Mound, Odell, Oklaunion, Grayback and
Rayland.

LAT...LON 3457 9901 3430 9895 3404 9895 3385 9960
      3405 9953 3423 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 243DEG 57KT 3426 9950 3405 9942 3392 9951

Mahale