Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS Norman, OK

312 
WWUS54 KOUN 312122
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
422 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKC151-312132-
/O.EXP.KOUN.SV.W.0434.000000T0000Z-210731T2130Z/
Woods OK-
422 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                 
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3700 9914 3695 9913 3686 9919 3686 9933
      3688 9937 3690 9939 3691 9939 3700 9933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 272DEG 3KT 3695 9927 

$$

Mahale

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Outflow from last nights convection across northern Kansas
currently becoming nearly stationary across far southern Kansas.
Primary cold front progd to move southward across Kansas this
afternoon and continue to move into northern Oklahoma early this
evening. While most organized area of convection is expected to be
where these boundaries meet over southern Kansas, pre-frontal and
highly elevated storms are developing from the Texas Panhandle
eastward into northern portions of Oklahoma in deeply mixed,
veered flow. While this initial storm activity may be more or less
scattered due to lack of strong forcing along mentioned
boundaries, increased storm coverage expected through the evening
as outflow will help enhance low level convergence. Moderate mixed
layer CAPE and deep layer shear progd to increase toward 20 KT
should allow a few organized and persistent storms this evening to
yield damaging wind gusts across northern portions of Oklahoma.
By the overnight hours, aided by anticipated cold pool
development, showers and storms should begin to spread southward
into southwest and central portions of Oklahoma, although less
organized. Highest chances for rain will be retained across
northern and western portions of Oklahoma through the night.

Remnant, elevated shower activity with a few embedded storms
possible through Sunday morning across southwest Oklahoma/western
north Texas up into central Oklahoma. As instability increases
through the afternoon and early evening across the Red River
Valley of southern Oklahoma/northern Texas, redevelopment of
organized strong storms appears likely. During this time,
precipitable water values progd to exceed 2 inches, and with slow
storm movement, high rain totals and damaging wind gusts will be
possible across far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas into
Sunday night.

Temperatures on Sunday, for at least the northern two-thirds of
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, will be 15 to 20
degrees cooler than those seen this afternoon. However, ahead of
the front across far southeast Oklahoma, hot and humid conditions
are expected Sunday afternoon, which will yield extension of the
heat advisory over that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

In the system's wake, northerly flow aloft is expected through
much of the week across the Southern Plains. North to northeast
surface winds will advect lower temperatures and dewpoints. As a
result, the weather will be noticeably more comfortable (at least
for early August standards) through mid week with lower humidity
and slightly below-average temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to increase toward the latter half of the
week as mid-level heights rise and a thermal ridge develops to
the west (the Southern Plains will be eastern periphery of the
thermal ridge).

The chance for convection appears quite low through much of the
extended period. While a subtle wave embedded in the
northerly/northwesterly flow could bring in remnant convection or
enhance the ascent, there is limited signal in the deterministic
guidance. The NBM 90th percentile QPF values are very low, which
indicates ensemble guidance is relatively dry as well.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon with mainly light
southwest winds. Cold front will enter far northern Oklahoma
21-00Z with scattered TSRA possible near and behind the front.
The trend of TEMPO TSRA will be included across far northern
Oklahoma around 00Z with trend toward PROB30 farther south with
less confidence in coverage overnight. MVFR cigs and vis expected
in and near TSRA. Toward and after 12Z, mainly remnant SHRA with
isolated TSRA possible central and southwest portions of Oklahoma,
with more intense storms and better coverage near Red River
tomorrow afternoon/evening after this forecast valid time.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  86  67  87 /  40  40  10   0
Hobart OK         73  87  65  89 /  40  40  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  93  69  90 /  10  50  50  10
Gage OK           68  83  63  88 /  70  50  10   0
Ponca City OK     71  87  62  86 /  70  30   0   0
Durant OK         77  96  71  91 /   0  50  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-024>032-039>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ048-052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1131 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heat...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon with heat
index values of 102 to 110 degrees.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return to the region this evening and
tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe storms across
northern Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday and Sunday night in
association with a cold front. Some storms may produce strong wind
gusts and heavy rain. Storms may linger around southern Oklahoma
and north Texas into Monday morning.

Low chances for scattered thunderstorms will return Wednesday and
Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
334 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

OKZ005-312100-
Woods OK-
334 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Woods County Until
400 PM CDT...

AT 333 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Buttermilk. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Woods
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9916 3689 9922 3689 9937 3700 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 267DEG 2KT 3696 9932

Mahale