Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Norman, OK

829 
WWUS54 KOUN 060008
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
708 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

OKC059-151-153-060018-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-210506T0030Z/
Woods OK-Harper OK-Woodward OK-
708 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WOODS...HARPER
AND NORTH CENTRAL WOODWARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                 
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits.

LAT...LON 3700 9907 3658 9917 3662 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 287DEG 44KT 3693 9935 

$$

WR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
338 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Showers and a few storms have already formed over east central
Colorado and parts of western and northern Kansas early this
afternoon.  This activity is expected to move into at least
northwest Oklahoma after 6 pm. Limited instability should keep
most thunderstorm below severe levels, but a few storms may
produce hail near quarter size along with gusty winds. This will
mainly be true across far northwest Oklahoma. During the evening
and overnight, showers and a few storms should continue to move
south and east into central Oklahoma, perhaps parts of southern
Oklahoma. Ridging to our west will build eastward which will bring
nice weather for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

There will be another chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday
morning with some isentropic ascent (especially across northern
Oklahoma). A remnant complex of thunderstorms may also affect
parts of northern/western Oklahoma Friday night from the
northwest.

By Saturday, an embedded shortwave trough will approach the
Central Plains. As the trough approaches, a surface cyclone will
intensify near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. The increasing surface
pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds. By
afternoon, as vertical mixing increases, the attendant dryline is
forecast to mix east of the 100th meridian. Hot temperatures are
expected west of the dryline with 850 mb temperatures progged to
be >25 deg C. Temperatures in the 90s to near 100 deg F are
possible and elevated fire weather conditions may develop in this
area.

East of the dryline, instability and shear will be sufficient for
strong to severe thunderstorms. However, a capping inversion may
limit the spatial extent of convection. Currently, it appears the
greatest ascent to prime the environment (e.g., sufficiently lift
the capping inversion) for convection will be across Kansas and
north central Oklahoma. Nevertheless, opted to expand the chance
for showers/storms a little farther south than the model QPFs
given the uncertainty.

A much cooler and drier airmass is expected in the cyclone's wake
for Sunday with highs in the 70s deg F and breezy northerly
winds. The dry airmass will result in lows in the 40s and 50s deg
F by Monday morning.

For early to mid next week, occasional shortwave troughs are
progged to affect the Southern Plains. While the pattern looks
unsettled (e.g., periods of showers/storms are possible), it's too
early to pick out if there is a given day that might have a
higher risk for severe weather (if at all).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Clouds across northern Oklahoma will continue to erode during the
afternoon. However, another shortwave trough will approach the
southern Plains late this afternoon/evening. Lift associated with
this feature will result in an increase in mid to high clouds
along with a chance of showers and isolated storms. The best
chance for precipitation will be this evening and overnight,
mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma. Clouds will dissipate
late overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

No Upper Air flight are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  76  52  79 /  40  10   0  10
Hobart OK         53  80  53  84 /  40  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  53  80  54  84 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           47  76  51  87 /  50  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     47  73  48  75 /  20   0   0  30
Durant OK         53  79  53  79 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-062000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
252 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
western Oklahoma this evening. A few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms are possible. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken
as they move eastward toward central Oklahoma overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible again on Friday and Friday night, with
isolated strong or marginally severe storms possible in northwest
Oklahoma on Friday evening. Thunderstorm chances persist each day
through Tuesday with the highest chances in central and eastern
Oklahoma, but these thunderstorms will not be widespread through
this time.

.Fire weather...
Fire weather conditions will be elevated over western Oklahoma
Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon with warm
temperatures, low humidity and breezy conditions.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
629 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

OKZ004-005-060000-
Harper OK-Woods OK-
629 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Harper and northwestern Woods
Counties Until 700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Acres, moving
east at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Laverne, Buffalo, May, Rosston and Selman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the situation closely. Be ready to act quickly if a warning
is issued or if storms threaten you.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9914 3679 9927 3680 9929 3675 9930
      3660 9939 3660 9998 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 285DEG 43KT 3708 9985

WR