River Flood Advisory 75, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

Another minor upper level disturbance will drop south through the
panhandles this evening. This may result in a few showers and
storms, some of which could be close to far southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Will maintain some low pops, mainly through the
first part of the night across far southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

As we go into the day on Tuesday, models show a weak upper low
developing across south Texas with several of these weak
disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the low from
east to west across northern Texas. Although much of the precip
associated with these will remain south of the area, portions of
north Texas could see a few showers during the day. Othewise, warm
and muggy conditions expected across the vast majority of Oklahoma
and north Texas with light winds and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase some Tuesday night
across mainly northwest Oklahoma, as a frontal boundary
approaches northern Oklahoma. Although the front will stall,
perhaps north of Oklahoma, an outflow boundary or two from storms
Tuesday night may aid in the development of more storms across
Oklahoma on Wednesday. Weak height rises associated with an
expanding ridge to our west, will mainly bring dry and somewhat
hotter weather for most areas Thursday and Friday.

Perhaps a stronger system will approach the area late Friday into
Saturday.  Very warm mid level temperatures should prevent
convection to our north from developing south into Oklahoma, at
least for most of Friday night.  Cooling associated with this system
and a frontal boundary should bring better rain chances to Oklahoma
on Saturday and Saturday night.  Strong to severe storms may develop
near a frontal boundary Saturday afternoon and night with strong
winds and areas of heavy rainfall possible.  Cyclonic flow
associated with a trough over the Plains and a frontal boundary
will keep showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

VFR conditions continue.

Daytime heating will result in mainly 5-7 thousand foot ceilings
this afternoon across west. These may continue overnight.
Otherwise, expect light southeast winds.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  87  69  88 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         67  87  69  89 /  10  10   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  10  10
Gage OK           67  87  68  86 /  10   0  20  40
Ponca City OK     66  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
Durant OK         69  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061630-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1120 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far western
sections of Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Low chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday across
northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. A weak cold front will move
into the region on Wednesday, which will expand the thunderstorm
chances across a larger part of the region, but storms should stay
isolated. Storm chances decrease Thursday and Friday, before
increasing again Friday night through the weekend as a stronger
cold front moves into the region.

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