River Flood Advisory 74, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible
this morning across the Red River Valley of southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas. Thunderstorm complex west of Abilene at this
typing expected to stay south of Knox City, Seymour and Archer
City areas early this morning, but development of showers and
storms near outflow farther north toward western north Texas
possible toward and after sunrise. Scattered showers and storms
also possible across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
with heating into this afternoon near axis of higher dewpoints and
weak upslope flow. We should transition to dry conditions across
all of the forecast area this evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

Models still depicting s/wv trough progressing through
northern/central plains tonight and Sunday, although weaker than
previous runs. Models less bullish on potential for upscale growth
of Saturday night high plains MCS and resulting MCV development.
With weak northerly flow over Oklahoma and western north Texas
Sunday into Monday, will keep pops going for potential of a weak
MCV progressing southward over our moist, uncapped environment.
These pops will be highest across western Oklahoma and adjacent
northern Texas closer to possible mid-level disturbance and deeper
moisture.

Longwave trough that has been established over the eastern half of
the country the past several days will get kicked eastward and
replaced with active branch of westerlies. At the same time, central
and western dirty ridge regime will be replaced with another
seasonally substantial ridge (heights ~594-600dam) through the
upcoming week. This will yield a general northwesterly flow
pattern for our region and periodic frontal passages. These
frontal passages will yield the best chances for organized heavy
rain episodes Wednesday/Wednesday night and again next weekend. As
a result, most daytime temperatures will remain below average,
but with the wet soils and generally upper 60 and 70s dewpoints
most days, humid conditions could have impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

MVFR ceilings were linger across central and southwestern OK this
morning. Areas of brief patchy fog across central OK are also
possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will veer throughout the day and become
more southwesterly towards the end of the period. There is a
chance for some showers to moves into southwestern OK and parts of
western north TX this afternoon, but confidence in any TAF sites
being impacted is low at this time.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  66  85  68 /  10   0  10  10
Hobart OK         82  66  86  68 /  30  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  85  68  89  70 /  40  10  10  20
Gage OK           85  67  86  67 /  10   0  40  40
Ponca City OK     86  66  87  67 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         88  65  89  67 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
518 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
518 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today,
mainly over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Severe
storms are not expected, but heavy downpours and gusty winds are
possible with some of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorm will be possible Sunday through Tuesday,
mainly across the western half of Oklahoma and all western north
Texas. As a weak cold front moves into the region on Wednesday,
thunderstorm chances will increase over much of the region, with
chances decreasing thereafter. No severe storms are expected, but
heavy rain that could lead to flooding will continue to be a
concern.

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