River Flood Advisory 3, NWS Norman, OK

174 
WGUS84 KOUN 132007
FLSOUN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Norman OK
207 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  North Canadian River near Watonga affecting Blaine and Canadian 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or 
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


OKC011-017-140815-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210314T2300Z/
/WATO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
207 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...The Flood Advisory is now in effect until tomorrow evening...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the North Canadian River near Watonga.
* Until Sunday evening.
* At 1:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Action stage is 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The North Canadian River is expected to rise to fall 
  below action stage this evening, then crest again near 13.0 feet 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, Near bankfull conditions exist along the 
  river may occur. The river reach affected extends from near 
  Watonga in Blaine County... downstream to near Calumet in western 
  Canadian County.


&&

LAT...LON 3607 9863 3611 9853 3590 9842 3572 9822
      3564 9830 3588 9854

$$

11

036 
WGUS84 KOUN 140232
FLSOUN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Norman OK
832 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  North Canadian River near Watonga affecting Blaine and Canadian 
  Counties.

OKC011-017-140345-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210314T0232Z/
/WATO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
832 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the North Canadian River near Watonga has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the North Canadian River near Watonga.
* At 7:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The North Canadian River has fallen below action stage. 
  This will be the last forecast for this event.


&&

LAT...LON 3607 9863 3611 9853 3590 9842 3572 9822
      3564 9830 3588 9854

$$

JT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
700 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

An area of rain and thunderstorms over western Oklahoma early
this morning will continue its northeastward trek, bringing rain
to much of western and northern Oklahoma. Some heavy rain will
fall over already-wet areas, possibly resulting in minor
flooding. We have retained the Flood Watch through its scheduled
expiration at 6 am.

In the cool, humid areas north of the stationary front (that
extended from near Shawnee to Norman to Chickasha to Hobart to
Altus early this morning), some fog has developed. The fog will
continue into the later morning hours.

The front is expected to resume its northward movement as a warm
front later this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop
over west Texas this afternoon. As that front sweeps east this
evening and overnight, strong to severe storms are expected to
develop along, and ahead of, the front. As the frontal storms move
into central Oklahoma, they will encounter an increasingly
hostile environment (less instability, more inhibition), and the
storms should weaken fairly rapidly after midnight. SPC has done a
good job describing the overall severe weather threats for today
in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Despite the expected weakening trend overnight/early Sunday,
widespread rain is still likely, so PoPs are very high overnight
tonight. Rainfall rates will likely be rather high, too, but the
progressive nature of the showers/storms should keep the chances
for significant flooding very low. One possible exception is far
western Oklahoma, where rainfall rates may be high enough to
cause flooding similar to what happened last evening, despite the
eastward progress of the storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

The dryline is expected to be moving through central Oklahoma by
daybreak Sunday morning with the last of showers and a few
thunderstorms moving east of I-35. The low pressure responsible
for the weather the last few days will slowly track from
southeastern Colorado to northeastern Oklahoma by Monday sunrise.
Precipitation is expected to have exited central Oklahoma by
Sunday afternoon with some residual clouds across northern
Oklahoma into early Monday morning. From later Tuesday to early
Wednesday another upper low, in faster, more amplified flow, will
cross from southern Colorado to eastern Kansas. Deep-layer
moisture will be much more limited with this system, but still showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move west to east quickly along
a cold front. This system will be followed by a cooler air mass,
returning temperatures to around normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

A stationary front near I-40 separates widespread fog and very low
cloudiness (to the north) from generally VFR or MVFR conditions
(to the south). An area of rain in north-central Oklahoma will
continue to move northeast this morning. Scattered showers are
expected to develop near/north of the front this afternoon, with
minimal effects on aviation. The front will shift north, which
should cause some improvement in ceilings and visibilities, at
least south of the boundary. Strong to severe storms will move
into western Oklahoma/western north Texas this evening. The storms
will form into a line, and continue to the east. Widespread rain
is expected overnight, but the severe weather potential will begin
to diminish as the storms move into central Oklahoma around
midnight. General improvement is then expected to follow the
departing storms early Sunday.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  50  67  45 /  50  90  10   0
Hobart OK         69  45  66  42 /  60 100   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  50  69  46 /  30 100   0   0
Gage OK           63  39  62  37 /  70 100   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  52  66  43 /  80 100  40   0
Durant OK         75  53  69  49 /  10  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>031.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
400 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today west of a
line from Woodward to Altus to Vernon Texas. There are slight and
marginal risks of severe storms eastward to I-35.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas
Panhandle during the mid afternoon when a strong storm system
approaches from the west. Severe thunderstorms are expected to move
into western Oklahoma and western north Texas by the late afternoon
and early evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
very large hail to the size of tennis balls, strong damaging wind
gusts over 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. Thunderstorm intensity is
expected to decrease as the storms move east during the evening, but
will still pose a damaging wind and hail threat.

.Flooding...
Heavy rainfall that may occur this evening and early Sunday morning
could cause localized flooding. Areas closer to the Kansas border
are more likely to have the most rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
231 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

OKZ034-036-130900-
Greer OK-Jackson OK-
231 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Greer and
northeastern Jackson Counties Until 300 AM CST...

AT 230 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Duke, moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Blair, Martha, Friendship, Warren, Duke and Altus Air Force
Base.

LAT...LON 3467 9963 3486 9931 3485 9930 3485 9929
      3484 9928 3484 9926 3475 9917 3473 9916
      3472 9917 3457 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 233DEG 35KT 3465 9950

WR