River Flood Advisory 18, NWS Norman, OK

618 
WGUS84 KOUN 291330
FLSOUN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Norman OK
830 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Little River near Tecumseh affecting Seminole and Pottawatomie 
  Counties.

OKC125-133-291430-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-210429T1330Z/
/TCMO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
830 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Little River near Tecumseh has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Little River near Tecumseh.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Little River is expected to fall to 4.9 feet Monday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3519 9721 3525 9721 3522 9680 3515 9668
      3508 9668 3511 9699

$$

SK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The convection seen on radar now from near Weatherford up through Watonga
and Enid is associated with convergence along the surface trough. The
convection is shallow, and winds are actually quite weak through 700-mb at
the moment, so they almost have a summer-like appearance in behavior (not
much motion). Mid-level lapse rates are fairly weak and without a decent
amount of surface heating it would be hard for this convection to attain
enough depth to become more organized and much of a concern for severe.
But, a landspout or two cannot be ruled out as vertical vorticity along
the boundary is stretched. Usually, for a more productive landspout day
you would want steeper low level lapse rates, however. Well continue to
monitor trends on this.

Later today, if enough surface based heating can occur, deeper more intense
convection could evolve along this axis, particularly along its southern
flanks into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. If this happens,
effective shear would be more than supportive of organized storms including
supercells with mainly a hail/wind threat. But, stronger forcing/cooling
aloft will probably hold mostly west of this surface boundary having limited
influence into the evening. An alternate and probably more likely scenario
is for storms to develop and organized in the Lubbock forecast area closer
to the trough and along the western extent of instability, and then move
into our southwest by late afternoon or evening. The best low-level shear
for a tornado concern should be relegated to the southeast where the
environment is most stable.

Due to recent heavy rains and saturated ground, any additional heavy rain
from the above scenario later today/tonight could be problematic. It wont
take much. Flooding danger is likely the primary life safety concern for
this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

A very moist atmosphere will support numerous showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Providing support for convection is
an upper-level low centered over southwest New Mexico. This low
will drift slowly over Chihuahua tonight through Saturday.
Meanwhile, a cold front, located approximately from Ponca City to
Vernon, will pass southeast through the remainder of our forecast
area tonight.

This progression of weather features will result in a continued
risk of heavy rain extending from a few counties behind the front
through the entire area ahead of the front. This heavy rain risk
will end slowly from northwest to southeast, more or less with
the progress of the surface front. Rain chances in general will
diminish as the drier air behind the front moves in. By Thursday
evening, rain chances will be confined to the southern part of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of
Oklahoma and north Texas Thursday night, and a cut-off upper-
level low will still be residing over the Mexican state of
Chihuahua. With the upper low in relatively close proximity, low
rain chances will continue over most of Texas and parts of
southern Oklahoma through Saturday. As the surface airmass shifts
east with time, a return flow of increasing moisture will begin
during the weekend.

Then, the upper-level low will finally start moving northeast into
Texas, before being assimilated into the Westerlies. As the low
approaches north Texas and Oklahoma, rain chances will increase
over eastern and central Oklahoma Saturday night and Sunday.

Early next week, a shortwave trough aloft, combined with an
associated surface low, will maintain rain chances. This time,
the chances will be mainly over northern, then eastern Oklahoma.

CmS
&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of, along,
and a moderate distance behind a cold front that extended from
near KSWO to KSPS at 23Z. The front will continue moving southeast
overnight, taking the convection with it. Showers/storms should be
confined almost entirely to southeast Oklahoma after about 06Z. A
layer of moisture at around 1,500 feet will cause some overnight
ceilings, but that should thin and disappear during the day on
Thursday. Some clouds and perhaps showers may linger through the
day near KSPS, but the remainder of the region can expect a few
cumulus clouds, along with mid/high cloudiness, and a north breeze
around 10 kt with somewhat higher gusts.

CmS
&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

No upper air flights are currently planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  57  72  51 /  90  80  10  10
Hobart OK         79  55  72  48 /  80  70  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  78  58  71  52 /  90  80  30  20
Gage OK           73  49  74  44 /  20  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     76  56  74  48 /  70  80  10   0
Durant OK         78  63  74  55 /  80  90  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ013-019-020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1152 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
portions of the area through tonight. Strong to severe storms are
possible, with the highest potential in parts of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Large hail up to the size of
golf balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main concerns.
There is also a low potential for a tornado or two in parts of
south central and southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and this
evening.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Additional heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding across
portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
through tonight, especially in those areas that received several
inches of rain overnight last night into this morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms should exit the area Thursday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Tuesday of next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
911 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW NORMAN             35.24N 97.47W
04/28/2021  M69 MPH          CLEVELAND          OK   MESONET

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             3 NW BETHEL ACRES       35.33N 97.09W
04/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
945 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ039-290330-
Stephens OK-
945 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Stephens County Until
1030 PM CDT...

AT 942 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Duncan, moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Marlow, Bray and Central High.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 9813 3459 9814 3468 9797 3468 9775
      3446 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 254DEG 22KT 3453 9805

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
948 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ045-046-050-TXZ089-090-290315-
Love OK-Carter OK-Jefferson OK-Clay TX-Archer TX-
948 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Love...southwestern
Carter...southeastern Jefferson...southern Clay and southeastern
Archer Counties Until 1015 PM CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles southeast of Oscar to 6 miles northwest of Bellevue to 11
miles southeast of Olney, moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Henrietta, Lone Grove, Scotland, Windthorst, Terral,
Bellevue, Leon, Newport, Lake Arrowhead, Rubottom, Bluegrove, Grady,
Oscar, Shannon, Courtney, Petersburg, Joy and Vashti.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 9841 3407 9772 3422 9712 3384 9746
      3389 9745 3392 9749 3390 9759 3395 9759
      3399 9768 3386 9783 3385 9787 3389 9798
      3375 9798 3347 9799 3347 9842 3340 9842
      3340 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 254DEG 31KT 3393 9772 3370 9809 3330 9858

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ045-046-050-TXZ090-290400-
Love OK-Carter OK-Jefferson OK-Clay TX-
1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Love...southern
Carter...southeastern Jefferson and southeastern Clay Counties Until
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
7 miles southwest of Lone Grove to 6 miles west of Rubottom to 3
miles south of Bellevue, moving northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Lone Grove, Wilson, Dickson, Terral, Bellevue, Gene Autry,
Leon, Overbrook, Rubottom, Lake Murray, Burneyville, Grady, Oscar,
Newport, Shannon, Courtney, Petersburg, Joy and Vashti.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 9838 3390 9796 3419 9743 3433 9693
      3404 9709 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3388 9733 3382 9737 3382 9744 3391 9747
      3390 9759 3394 9759 3398 9763 3399 9768
      3386 9783 3387 9798 3347 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 245DEG 39KT 3410 9732 3391 9757 3359 9801

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ031-032-041>043-045>047-050-051-290430-
Love OK-Coal OK-Carter OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Pontotoc OK-
Hughes OK-Seminole OK-Murray OK-Jefferson OK-
1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Love...northwestern Coal...
Carter...western Johnston...northwestern Marshall...Pontotoc...
Hughes...southeastern Seminole...eastern Murray and east central
Jefferson Counties Until 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1051 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lone Grove,
moving northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3479 9609 3388 9717 3389 9718
      3391 9723 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3388 9733 3382 9737 3382 9743 3391 9747
      3390 9759 3395 9759 3399 9766 3529 9614
      3529 9605 3515 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 228DEG 46KT 3417 9719

Zwink