Heat Advisory 24, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

Mid/upper high will continue to build into the region
today. This will lead to hot and humid conditions with triple digit
heat index values expected this afternoon. Heat indices as high as
105+ will be possible in some areas so a heat advisory has been
issued. Will not make any changes to the advisory on this shift.

With the high pressure in the region, showers/storms will become
less likely. However, can not completely rule out a few isolated
showers/storms this afternoon due to heating but identifying where
this would happen is difficult and most places will remain dry. Some
of the CAMs have hinted at this activity being possible as well.
Have less than 15% PoPs in the forecast with a mention of isolated
storms for parts of the fa. Any potential for storms is expected to
end after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

Models show a weak shortwave moving from the central Rockies into
the Plains Thursday with showers/storms developing to the W and NW
of the fa near a front. This activity could then move into NW
portions of the fa Thursday afternoon/night. The front is expected
to gradually move closer to the area Friday with showers/storms
remaining possible near the front and extending into northern
portions of the fa. Models show the front and/or outflow boundary
moving into the area this weekend which will cause rain chances to
spread/shift further south across the fa. Meanwhile, models show the
mid/upper high flattening some with the high pressure center
shifting into the southwest U.S. by early next week and NW flow
developing over the central U.S. Models have the mid/upper high
shifting back towards the region towards the middle to late part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

All of our terminals are expected to remain under VFR conditions
through the entire forecast period. Some of the CU this afternoon
could build into a thunderstorm near the Red River affecting
terminal KSPS, but chances are so low that it was left out of the
TAF. South surface winds may back more southeasterly after 00Z. A
nocturnal low-level jet may result in some wind gusts after 00Z
affecting terminals in western Oklahoma. Expect surface winds to
veer more southerly after 14Z.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

No upper air flights are planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  74  96  74 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK        101  74  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX 100  74  98  74 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           99  72  96  72 /   0  10  20  40
Ponca City OK     98  72  96  74 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK        100  74  98  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heat...
Triple digit heat indices will be possible across much of the area
today with values of 105 or higher possible. A heat advisory is in
effect for this afternoon across portions of north central,
central, south central, and southeast Oklahoma. Take steps to
prevent heat related illnesses.

.Thunderstorms...
A few isolated storms may develop this afternoon. If storms do
develop, brief heavy downpours and gusty winds would be the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Heat...
Triple digit heat index values will continue to be possible for
at least parts of the area Thursday into Saturday. Drink plenty of
fluids and take other steps to prevent heat related illnesses.

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northern and central Oklahoma, mainly north of I-40, Thursday
afternoon into Friday, with the highest chances in northern
Oklahoma. Rain chances will then spread south over the weekend.

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