Frost Advisory 1, NWS Norman, OK

Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
848 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-038>047-050-301500-
/O.EXP.KOUN.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-211030T1400Z/
Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Woodward-Major-Garfield-Noble-Dewey-
Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-
Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-
Hughes-Kiowa-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Love-
Including the cities of Alva, Cherokee, Helena, Carmen, Medford, 
Pond Creek, Lamont, Wakita, Ponca City, Blackwell, Woodward, 
Fairview, Enid, Perry, Seiling, Vici, Taloga, Leedey, 
Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, Okeene, Kingfisher, 
Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Cordell, Burns Flat, 
Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, 
Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague, Meeker, Davenport, 
Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell, Newcastle, Blanchard, 
Norman, Moore, Shawnee, Seminole, Wewoka, Holdenville, Wetumka, 
Hobart, Snyder, Lawton, Duncan, Pauls Valley, Lindsay, Wynnewood,
Sulphur, Davis, Ada, Coalgate, Walters, Temple, Waurika, 
Ringling, Ryan, Ardmore, Tishomingo, Marietta, and Thackerville
848 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Additional frost development is no longer expected. Therefore, the
frost advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Frost will be the main weather impact in the short term for
portions of the area. We were broad with the Frost Advisory
although admittedly some areas will fail to fall to cold enough
temperatures to support frost, especially urban areas including
within OKC metro. Mid 30s for 2m temperatures will be common,
with clear/calm conditions supporting a very thin layer of
freezing temperatures at the ground for frost formation. A few
areas could fall to freezing, but it's difficult to delineate
specific locations due to (1) transient nature of surface trough
axis and associated period of light/calm winds (2) local terrain
strongly influencing this potential. Most likely areas for at or
just below freezing temperatures will be normally colder low-lying
areas.

Elevated to near critical fire weather will continue through the
afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas due to
sufficiently strong northwest winds, and low RH. Winds should
subside this evening with loss of heating/mixing.

BRB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

The upper low will move toward the east coast by the weekend with
lighter winds and pleasant temperatures. A cold front will move
south across the area on Sunday which will begin to cool
temperatures down, especially across the north. Monday will see even
a bit cooler temperatures as cloud cover increases. One minor wave
will move across TX on Monday and we may see a few showers develop
with some weak forcing from the shortwave as well as some weak waa
that develops across the area by Monday night.

We will see a reinforcing shot of even cooler air sink south across
the area Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger trough moves across
the northern part of the country. As this occurs another shortwave
moves out of the southern Rockies into the Plains. This will result
in additional rain chances and perhaps some thunder, mainly along
the Red river Tuesday into early Wednesday. We will have to watch
trends in the models as well in this time frame as thermal profiles
in some models would suggest potential for some wintry precip across
northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday morning and perhaps even farther
south as we go into Wednesday night and Thursday as yet another
reinforcing shot of colder air slides south on the backside of this
shortwave. A freeze is possible as well by the later part of next
week across parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

VFR conditions will prevail, with clear conditions. Gusty
northwest winds will become light tonight, and then become
southerly at western sites by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  37  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  37  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  38  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           66  35  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     63  32  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  39  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008-
     010>013-015>020-022>032-035-038>047-050.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
203 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
203 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday afternoon across western north Texas and the western half
of Oklahoma.

.Frost...
Patchy frost will be possible across portions of Oklahoma late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for a few thunderstorms across parts of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday. Severe weather is not
expected at this time.

.Freezing Temperatures...
A light freeze is possible across northwest Oklahoma Thursday
morning.

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