Freeze Watch 3, NWS Norman, OK

Alfalfa County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Major County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
200 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Scattered light showers/sprinkles possible through mid-evening
across northern into central Oklahoma as s/wv trough progresses
eastward across Kansas. While the capping inversion does erode
somewhat late this afternoon and this evening, it should remain
pronounced enough to discourage deep convection. There is a deep
enough layer of moisture beneath the cap, evident by expansive
stratocu field across Kansas and Oklahoma this afternoon, to allow
these showers to persist into the evening. Main area that could be
impacted appears to be around Medford/Enid/Ponca City, southward
toward Stillwater.

Otherwise, a general clearing trend is expected tonight into Sunday,
and with the decreasing northerly wind, a light freeze appears
possible across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. If we see
enough clearing and winds weaken sufficiently, could see patchy
frost as far south as our western north Texas counties and eastward
into central Oklahoma. Amount of mid-level cloud cover will be
tricky, with bands of clouds associated with mentioned s/wv trough
across northern and central Oklahoma, and deformation band farther
south and west. Winds not expected to drop off completely, but light
enough where we could get patchy frost in sheltered areas. We will
go ahead and mention frost in the forecast for late tonight and
early Sunday morning. With less cloud cover Sunday, we should warm
up into the 60s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Warm conditions on Monday will give way to a period of cooler
weather when a cold front arrives Monday evening to northwestern OK.
The front will move out of southeast OK by midday Tuesday. A well-
defined upper short-wave trough, extending from a low over southern
Ontario, will accompany the front. Along with a strong MSLP gradient
and vertical mixing, winds nearing advisory criteria are expected in
western Oklahoma Tuesday morning behind the cold front. Limited
moisture, but sufficient lift will bring a chance for rain/snow to
northwestern OK early Tuesday as the trough passes quickly to the
east. The air mass will be cool enough to bring a freeze to
northwestern OK Tuesday morning. As the surface high drifts over OK
Wednesday morning, most of western and central OK may have freezing
temperatures. A freeze watch is in effect for these two mornings.
Lower-level moisture will travel north over western TX and the
panhandles while several waves in northwesterly flow and an upper low
in the southwestern U.S. evolve together to bring a period of lift
over OK. Rain chances increase through Friday afternoon. Afterward,
a cold front is expected Saturday with the main part of the upper
low well south of the Red River. Given the flow regime, the surface
air mass will probably pass to the northeast of OK.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected through the
period.

Low to mid level clouds will be abundant tonight, but any
ceilings should remain VFR. Northwest winds will shift to to
south/southeast toward the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  40  72  38 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         66  37  73  36 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  66  39  74  43 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           65  35  73  29 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     64  37  73  35 /   0   0   0  30
Durant OK         66  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for OKZ004>047-050.

     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015.

TX...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Freeze...
A light freeze is expected across northwest Oklahoma tonight and
early Sunday morning. Patchy frost is also possible farther south
all the way into western north Texas and also eastward into
central Oklahoma. Cover tender vegetation to avoid damage or
bring indoors if possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances return next Thursday and Friday. Severe
storms appear possible.

.Snow...
Light accumulations of snow will be possible across northern and
western Oklahoma Monday night and Tuesday morning. No significant
impacts are currently expected.

.Freeze...
Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings northern and western Oklahoma. Frost conditions will be
seen farther south across most of Oklahoma and northern Texas
Wednesday morning. Cover tender vegetation to avoid damage or
bring it indoors if possible.

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